CONFLICT BETWEEN ETHIOPIA AND TIGRAY PEOPLE'S LIBERATION FRONT IN TIGRAY IN 2020
Yayan A Tampubolon (07041282227099)
I. Introduction
      In a country, conflict is an event that often occurs. This conflict arises because of differences in interests, ideas, and policies between people, groups, and the government. In a country it is almost impossible to have no conflict.
 This is because in each country there are various groups with various differences ranging from physicality, customs, knowledge, and also thinking (Aflah, 2023). One of the countries that is currently experiencing conflict is Ethiopia.
      The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia or known as Ethiopia is one of the oldest countries and the only country that has never been colonized in the African region. The Ethiopian region generally consists of a vast land mass of mountains and plateaus divided by the Great Rift Valley or a large rift valley that stretches from Syria to the east and from north to south of Ethiopia (Lumintosari, 2021).Â
The country also has 9 states, including Afar, Tigray, Orokia, Somali, Gambela, Banshangul/Gumuz, Harari, Dire Dawa, and Addis Ababa with various different tribes and cultures (Wijayanti & Aini, 2023). As well as directly bordering other countries including Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, South Sudan, Sudan, and Kenya (Widiastuti, 2022).
      In addition, Ethiopia is also one of the countries in Africa for refugees. This is supported by an open-door policy and access to humanitarian aid for asylum seekers in Ethiopia. However, in 2020 this was reversed where many Ethiopians fled to other countries due to the civil war between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front in Tigray due to the political transition of the government.Â
Ethiopia adopts a Parliamentary system of government where the highest power of Ethiopia lies in the hands of the Prime Minister who is elected and approved by the Ethiopian Parliament. Then, Ethiopia also adopted a federal system of government based on ethnicity where each state has special autonomy to manage and control itself (Widiastuti, 2022).
      This political transition occurred after Abiy Ahmed was appointed Prime Minister in April 2018 which made changes to the political world in Ethiopia. The TPLF party, which previously dominated the Ethiopian government, had a major role in the formation of the government and succeeded in overthrowing the military regime. With the party's dominance in Ethiopian politics, it is considered an obstacle to democracy and the root of the problem by the people of Ethiopia.
 So, in response to this, Abiy stated that he would carry out political reforms, unity, and reconciliation, which were welcomed by the Ethiopian people. However, the TPLF tried to be able to oppose the Abiy government.
      In addition, Abiy Ahmed began to take over the power of regional parties, one of which was the TPLF. The seizure of power led to increased tensions with the Ethiopian government and became increasingly heated as Abiy dismissed politicians from the TPLF party.
 This was done because it was suspected of having committed violations, one of which was corruption. So, the peak of this conflict occurred on November 4, 2020. This conflict has had an impact on its society such as humanitarian crises, murders, sexual violence, human rights violations, infrastructure damage and many more.
      Therefore, in this discussion, the author will discuss more deeply both the characteristics of the conflict, the causes, conditions, the actors involved, and the resolution of this conflict. In this writing, the author also uses a data collection technique with a literature method. The literature method is a data collection technique that is carried out by reading all reference books and literature related to the parent and problem that the author researches to obtain theories that can be used as a tool for analyzing existing data.Â
This technique is aimed at obtaining qualitative data as a support for writing. In addition, the author uses relevant references from newspapers, journals, magazines, articles, and internet data.
II. Discussion
2.1 Conflict characteristics
      The conflict that occurred between the Ethiopian federal government and the TPLF in November 2020 was initially thought to be a response to the rapid security operation by the federal government. However, the conflict eventually developed into a protracted conflict involving Ethiopian military forces and Eritrean military forces supporting Ethiopian forces.
 The cause of the increase in political tension that has become a military conflict is caused by the initial attack carried out by the TPLF against an Ethiopian military base in the Tigray region. According to TPLF, this attack was a form of self-defense anticipation against military buildup by the Ethiopian Defense Forces which reportedly occurred around the Tigray region (Nyadera & Osedo, 2023).
      So, on one occasion this TPLF managed to get a big profit. By building a full military force in Tigray before eventually invading other regions. These areas include Afar, Amhara and the march to the capital Addis Ababa which is only 380 kilometers from the city.Â
With this in mind, the Ethiopian government declared a state of emergency and began a conscription program for youth and retired military personnel loyal to the federal government aimed at fighting the attack of Tigray forces on the capital.
      The efforts made by this government to change the battlefield gave him an advantage. Where the Ethiopian government succeeded in encouraging the TPLF to return to the Tigray mountains. However, this conflict had a devastating and far-reaching impact by causing many people to die, and many others to starve. In addition, this conflict is one of the worst that has happened in the country in recent decades.
 The government has also been accused of playing a key role in a number of civilian victims who died of starvation for preventing the delivery of humanitarian aid. And Tigrayan forces have also been accused of raping, looting, and murdering the Amhara and Afar groups (Nyadera & Osedo, 2023).
2.2 Causes, Conditions, and Actors Involved in the Conflict
Cause
This conflict has started since November 2020 caused by allegations of fraud by the Tigray People's Liberation Front in the postponed general election of Abiy Ahmed, the Prime Minister of Ethiopia. The postponement of the election was caused by the Covid-19 pandemic which was originally going to be held in March 2020. Thus, the TPLF held its own general elections in September 2020 in Tigray.Â
Where the results of this election were won by the TPLF with 98% of the seats and the federal government only 2% of the seats. However, Abiy considers the election to be illegal and an illegitimate result. As for TPLF, the federal government's term should end in October
This led to tensions between Abiy Ahmed's government and the TPLF which culminated on November 4, 2020 with the use of military force after Abiy declared that the TPLF had begun military operations against the federal government in several parts of Ethiopia.Â
In addition, Abiy also considered the attack a serious act of treason and accused the TPLF of fueling religious and ethnic conflicts that caused the situation in Ethiopia to spiral out of control. In response, the federal government has sent troops in an operation known as "Law Enforcement" to retake the Mekelle region, the capital of Tigray.Â
On November 28, 2020, the government declared victory after successfully reoccupying Mekelle and detaining 64 TPLF members. In addition, military forces from the TPLF and Ethiopia attempted to bring each other down.
During this operation, federal forces received assistance from the Eritrean military. Then, this conflict was also caused by unilateral political decisions and reforms carried out by Abiy Ahmed. Where, this is not welcomed by Tigray residents because it is considered an attempt to centralize power (Nyadera & Osedo, 2023). In other words, that this conflict was triggered by general elections, the push for political reform and the struggle for power.Â
As well as because of political and ideological differences. Therefore, this conflict not only affects both sides of the conflict, but also has a significant impact on Ethiopian society as a whole.
Condition
This conflict has caused various adverse impacts felt by the Ethiopian people, especially in Tigray. Nearly 40% of the population in Tigray suffer from food insecurity, food insecurity, and a significant increase in gender-based violence in the absence of access to proper health services, social welfare, and justice (USA for UNHCR, n.d.).
 According to UNICEF, at least more than 2.8 million children did not have the right to education in 2021 due to conflict and have previously been hampered by the Covid-19 pandemic. Therefore, many children have not been able to return to school (Wilson Center, n.d.). Then, this conflict has also made children vulnerable to the threat of hunger, disease, and violence (Omer, 2024).
Not only that, but the Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF) also committed abuses against civilians during the war against Tigray forces working with the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) to engage in bombings, looting, and occupying schools, which are often used for other crimes including rape with weapons.Â
Thus, this conflict has resulted in a significant reduction in the number of health workers, a reduction in maternal and child health services, as well as an increase in malnutrition, the burden of infectious and non-communicable diseases, and gender-based violence (Gesesew et al., 2021).Â
And at least 5.5 million people have been forced to flee their homes and take refuge in other parts of Ethiopia and it is estimated that more than 52,000 civilians have been killed. The United Nations reported that 27 aid workers have been killed since November 2020, killing an Ethiopian Red Cross ambulance driver and an International Rescue Committee worker (Human Rights Watch, 2022).
Based on the OCHA report in February 2022, this conflict has resulted in:
1.8 million people in Tigray need the support of Camp Coordination and Camp Management both food, drinking water, medicine, bedding and kitchen utensils throughout Eastern Ethiopia.
More than 9 million people are in need of food assistance in northern Ethiopia, especially for people in hard-to-reach areas.
3.9 million people in Tigray need health services and interventions. At least 888,000 children in Tigray need oral polio vaccination. And more than 1.6 million children under five years old and pregnant and lactating women need malnutrition prevention and treatment interventions.
      In addition to causing a humanitarian crisis, this conflict also has an impact on the economy in Ethiopia (Studies, n.d.). According to Antonio Guterres, who is the Secretary General of the United Nations, this conflict has cost the country more than $1 billion, including for military spending.Â
In 2021, the country's economic growth is expected to decline from the previous year, which was 2% and not only have an impact on Tigray but also on the entire region and other sectors such as mining, manufacturing, and agriculture.Â
With deteriorating economic conditions, Ethiopia's central bank has stopped all money transfers, loans, and insurance for imports. However, this led to a crisis in foreign markets and a dwindling foreign exchange reserves.
      As a result, the local birr currency exchange rate and the black market exchange rate have decreased significantly. Where the USD-birr exchange rate fell to 45, after the local currency traded at 35 against the dollar in 2020. The parallel market exchange rate rose to 75 against the dollar, especially after the Ethiopian government announced a public mobilization to fight the TPLF.Â
Not only that, this conflict has also caused an increase in the inflation rate which was previously at 18% to 34.2% in the Tigray region. As well as keeping investors away from the Ethiopian market.
      Then, this conflict has a direct impact on the country's foreign trade. Ethiopia lost approximately $20 million in export revenue after industrial facilities in the Tigray region were closed. And Ethiopia has also lost some of the support offered by Western partners. One of them is the European Union, which suspended 88 million euros ($107 million) worth of budget support during the ongoing conflict. The suspension has caused huge losses for Ethiopia which relies on foreign aid to fund various development projects across the country.
ActorÂ
      In this conflict, there are several actors involved. First, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) is a paramilitary group of political parties and former Ethiopian nationalist government parties founded on February 18, 1975 in Dedeuter, northwest of Tigray (Wijayanti &Aini, 2023).Â
The TPLF emerged as a formidable challenger to the Marxist military dictatorship in Ethiopia and was instrumental in overthrowing the regime in 1991 through an alliance with other organizations within the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) (Ghaedi, 2021).Â
Before the conflict, the TPLF was the dominant political force in Ethiopia (Global Conflict Tracker, n.d). In this conflict, the TPLF refused to join the newly formed ruling party formed by Abiy. As well as considering the political reforms carried out by Abiy as an effort to counter Ethiopian ethnic federalism (Pichon, 2022).
      Second, the Ethiopian government under the leadership of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has a desire to break the power of the TPLF, a rebel movement that has dominated Ethiopian politics for almost three decades and establish a new political party (Walsh & Dahir, 2022). In addition, abiy also made improvements to the rule of law. Where each region has a special police, as well as a regional police (United States Department of State, 2023). Thus, in this conflict, the Ethiopian government has a position to maintain the stability of its country's security in the midst of the escalating conflict.
      Third, the African Union has a role as a third party or mediator to resolve ongoing conflicts. Where the African Union brought together the two parties involved in the conflict in South Africa on October 30, 2022 (Ghaedi, 2021).Â
In this case, the African Union explained that its involvement in these negotiations is the only feasible and effective approach to get a solution to this conflict (Abebe, 2022). Apart from being a mediator, the African Union also provides humanitarian assistance in collaboration with the European Union, the United Nations, and other organizations (Oliviani, 2024).
      And another actor involved in this conflict is Eritrea. These Eritrean forces played an important role in containing the insurgency during the initial movement of the TPLF into the Amhara and Afar regions, as well as cutting off the TPLF's logistical supply lines. In addition, Eritrean forces also carried out various massacres in the city of Axum where the victims were children around 13 years old.Â
Tigray women and men were also subjected to rape and sexual violence, while others were taken by soldiers to Eritrean camps. And this has left thousands of people displaced (Chaslavova, 2022).Â
In other words, this actor is in coalition with the Ethiopian government to launch attacks against the TPLF, provide military support and share intelligence to Ethiopia, and was involved in a number of human rights violations during the conflict that exacerbated the humanitarian crisis in Tigray (Support, 2022).
      In addition to the actors involved in the conflict, there are several other actors who have a role to provide assistance to the communities affected by this conflict. One of them is Sudan as a place for affected people to evacuate. Where Sudan is experiencing an increase in refugees even though the country is experiencing an economic crisis. However, Sudan continues to provide assistance, namely by facilitating, coordinating and forming a refugee response committee to deal with refugees in Sudan. Local communities also provide support in the form of openly accepting refugees and sharing shelter and food for refugees (Lisvia & Aftah, 2023).
      Furthermore, the United Nation High Commissioner for Refugees participated in providing assistance. This organization is one of those organizations that has the goal of protecting rights, saving and building a future for refugees. In this conflict, UNHCR has provided various forms of assistance. Such as emergency shelter camp assistance in Sudan, health assistance by providing food, clean water (Ade, 2022).
      In addition, the organization also assists the Sudanese government to present data and information related to refugee conditions, refugees, the implementation of conventions, regulations and decisions applicable to refugees. UNHCR provides a protection desk and a child protection desk in the protection sector to conduct screening and registration for Ethiopian citizens to obtain refugee status (Lisvia & Aftah, 2023).
      And another organization that provides assistance is the UN World Food Programme. WFP has distributed food aid in several parts of the Tigray region, Ethiopia. In addition, WFP has provided emergency food assistance to nearly six million of them. And will continue to work with its partners in the wider distribution of aid, including to people in the Amhara, Afar and Somali regions and ensure that aid reaches people in need (Ariesta, 2023).
2.3. Design and Implementation
      In resolving conflicts, there are various methods that can be used such as mediation, judicial, court routes, and the use of weapons. In general, conflict resolution methods are divided into two types. First, a peaceful settlement that involves an agreement between the parties involved to find a solution in an amicable manner. Second, settlement through violence occurs if the solution is forced through the use of force (Aflah, 2023). So that in this settlement using the mediation method.
      Where in resolving the conflict that occurred there are several things that must be considered for the realization of a mutually beneficial agreement. Such as the struggle for government power, general elections, and political reforms that occurred in Ethiopia. So, there needs to be a neutral third party to resolve the conflict. Where, the actor who has a role as a mediator in solving this problem is the African Union. The African Union is a regional organization consisting of 55 member countries in Africa.
      In this conflict, the African Union has expressed its concern over the escalation of violence and the worsening humanitarian situation. It also condemned all kinds of violence in the conflict in Tigray and also affirmed the need to respect each other's human rights and protect civilians. Therefore, the African Union calls on all parties involved to stop fighting and refrain from aggravating the situation and prioritize peaceful negotiations (Wijayanti &Aini, 2023).
      At the beginning of the mediation carried out by the African Union to resolve this conflict, it failed. This is because Abiy fully opposes mediation efforts and opposes the basic principles of the African Union (Wirawati, n.d.).Â
In August 2021, the African Union again tried to mediate through another special envoy, the former president of Nigeria, Olusegun Obasanjo. In this case, the former President said that a conflict cannot be resolved by the military, but this can disrupt political stability in Ethiopia. In addition, this organization has also been slow in resolving ongoing conflicts. Therefore, the African Union needs to use more effective mediation methods that are acceptable to the parties to the conflict.
      On October 30, 2022, mediation was again carried out by the African Union in South Africa. Where, South Africa agreed to host the mediation of the conflict because it is in accordance with the country's foreign policy objectives.Â
The negotiations are expected to resolve a civil war that has killed hundreds of people in Ethiopia. In this case, the African Union adopts an approach and strategy by means of peace negotiations where both parties involved in the conflict declare their commitment to creating peace.
      In addition, the African Union adopted another step by sending three people, former South African president Kgalema Motlanthe, former Mozambique president Joaquim Chissano, and former Liberian president Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf to call on all parties to the conflict to immediately end the fighting, creating the right conditions for an inclusive dialogue aimed at resolving all issues that lead to the conflict. Â
and restore peace and stability in Ethiopia. Thus, this negotiation resulted in a reduction in the conflict that had heated up two years earlier, namely a ceasefire.
      After lengthy negotiations, the conflict finally ended on November 2, 2022, with the signing of an agreement on a permanent cessation of hostilities mediated by the African Union (Burton, 2022). This agreement was signed by Redwan Hussien from the Ethiopian government and Getachew Reda from the TPLF side (Harter & Solomon, 2022).Â
There are several main points agreed upon by these two parties (Reuters, 2022). The first is about the ceasefire and the restoration of constitutional order. The party agreed to end all forms of hostilities including sabotage, acts of violence, airstrikes, and "rhetoric, propaganda and hate speech". They also agreed not to form coalitions with outside forces that could create hostility to both sides.
In addition, federal authority will be restored in Tigray. The Ethiopian government will ensure that Tigray will have representation in federal institutions such as the Parliament.
      Second, regarding disarmament. The two conflicting actors agreed that Ethiopia had only one defense force. In addition, the ruling party in Tigray, the TPLF, agreed to disarm all weapons, including small arms, within 30 days. And the fighters will take part in disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration programs. And the Ethiopian military will return to Mekelle.
      Third, regarding new general elections and recognition. In this agreement, neither side mentions the existence of a "Tigray government". So this is one of the main problems in this conflict because the government did not authorize the last general election won by the TPLF. Therefore, an interim government will be formed to administer Tigray until general elections are held.Â
The government is also committed to removing the TPLF's status as a 'terrorist' as well as initiating political negotiations with the group to resolve existing disagreements.
      Fourth, regarding aid and human rights. Where the government and TPLF will protect civilians and enforce international humanitarian law that has been agreed upon by Ethiopia. The government will also work with humanitarian organizations to ensure aid can return to the Tigray region. And if the security situation allows, the government will facilitate the repatriation of refugees and will bridge the restoration of services in Tigray
. The agreement also establishes a "transitional justice policy" to guarantee truth, responsibility, recovery, reconciliation, and healing for victims. And the fifth is about monitoring. Where will form a committee chaired by the AU to monitor and verify the implementation of the agreement. The committee will include representatives from the government, the TPLF and the Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD) in East Africa.
      The signing of this agreement was also welcomed by the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken. The minister praised the African Union for its usual steps to bring about peace in Ethiopia (Harter & Solomon, 2022). According to Human Rights Watch, the agreement provides an important opportunities for rapid and rigorous international monitoring to avoid further violence and humanitarian crises.Â
Therefore, international monitoring will be crucial to ensure that the parties to the conflict that cause violations will not prolong the harm to civilians (Human Rights Watch, 2022). Therefore, the realization of this cessation agreement is an achievement that should be commended to the African Union which has succeeded in making efforts to create peace, despite facing many challenges (Mabera, 2023).
III. Closing
3.1 Conclusion
      The internal conflict bounded by the Ethiopian Government and the TPLF is caused by several factors such as allegations of fraud in the general election, power grabs, and political reforms. So these factors have triggered military attacks from both parties involved. In addition, this conflict is also widening with the intervention of Eritrea to help the Ethiopian government which caused the escalation of the conflict.Â
This conflict has had a bad impact on the people in Tigray. Where the Tigray people are experiencing a humanitarian crisis, human rights violations, infrastructure damage, and an impact on the economy in Ethiopia.Â
      Therefore, the agreement that has been reached has succeeded in stopping the conflict that occurred bounded by the two parties. As well as paving the way for the reconciliation and recovery process for the affected communities. And the agreement reached was also well responded to by several actors. Like the US Secretary of State who praised the African Union for being able to resolve the conflict.
 Human Rights Watch also considers that after the negotiations, there needs to be supervision so that both parties comply with the agreement and do not prolong losses due to the conflict.
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