Southeast Asia Hosted Three International Summits, Chaos?

Southeast Asia hosted three consecutive international summits in a week: the Konferensi Tingkat Tinggi (KTT) ASEAN Summit in Phnom Penh, the KTT  Group of Twenty (G20) Summit in Bali, and the KTT Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in Bangkok. Eighteen countries contributed approximately half of the global economy, represented in the first ASEAN Summit since the Covid-19 pandemic in Cambodia: ASEAN 10, Japan, South Korea, China, India, the US, Russia, Australia, and New Zealand.

The chairman of the summit, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen (or "Colombia," according to the so-called "free world leader"), said the plenary session was somewhat heated but not tense: "Leaders spoke in a mature manner, and nothing was left unsaid."

It was up to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to reveal what was really important at the end of the summit. While praising the "inclusive, open, equal security and cooperation structure in ASEAN," Lavrov emphasized how Europe and NATO "want to militarize the region to contain Russia and China in the Indo-Pacific.". The manifestation of this policy is how "AUKUS openly targets confrontation in the South China Sea," he said. Lavrov also emphasized how the West, through the NATO military alliance, accepts ASEAN "only nominally" while promoting an agenda that is completely "unclear."

What is clear is how NATO "has moved towards Russia's border several times and now declares at the Madrid Summit that they have taken on global responsibility.". This brings us to the determiner: "NATO has moved their defense line to the South China Sea." And, Lavrov added, Beijing has the same assessment.

Here, in short, is the "open secret" of our current geopolitical glare. Washington's top priority is to contain China. That implies blocking the EU from getting closer to Eurasia's main driver - China, Russia, and Iran - which are involved in building the world's largest free trade/connectivity environment. Adding decades-long hybrid warfare against Iran, unlimited black hole armament of Ukraine fits into the initial stages of the battle. For the Empire, Iran cannot take advantage of being a cheap and high-quality energy supplier to the EU. And in parallel, Russia must be cut off from the EU. The next step is to force the EU to separate from China.

All of this fits into the wildest and most twisted Straussian/neo-con dream: to attack China, daring Taiwan, first Russia must be weakened, through the instrumentalization (and destruction) of Ukraine. And throughout the scenario, Europe has no agency.

Putin, Raeisi, and Erdogan's Path.

Real life in all major Eurasian nodes reveals a completely different picture. Take the casual gatherings in Tehran between Russian high security officials Nikolai Patrushev and his counterpart from Iran, Ali Shamkhani, last week. They not only discussed security issues but also serious business - as in turbo-charged trade. The National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) will sign a $40 billion deal next month with Gazprom, bypassing US sanctions, and including the development of two gas fields and six oil fields, natural gas and oil product exchange, LNG projects, and pipeline construction.

Immediately after the Patrushev-Shamkhani meeting, President Putin called President Ebrahim Raeisi to maintain "interaction in politics, trade, and economy, including transportation and logistics," according to the Kremlin. The Iranian President was reported to be "welcoming" the "strengthening" of Moscow-Tehran relations. 

Patrushev strongly supported Tehran against the latest color revolution adventure conducted under the endless hybrid war framework of the Empire. Iran and the EAEU are negotiating a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in parallel with an oil exchange deal with Russia. Soon, SWIFT may be completely bypassed. The entire Global South is watching.

In conjunction with Putin's phone call, Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey - in his own diplomatic overdrive and just back from the Turkic Council summit in Samarkand - stressed that the US and the collective West are attacking Russia "almost without limits." Erdogan explained that Russia is a "strong" country and praised its "great resistance." The response came exactly 24 hours later. Turkish intelligence cut to the chase, showing that the terrorist bombing on Istanbul's always-busy Istiklal pedestrian street was planned in Kobane in northern Syria, essentially in response to the US. It was a de facto act of war and could have serious consequences, including a deep revision of Turkey's presence in NATO.

Iran's multi-track strategy

The strategic alliance between Russia and Iran is practically a historical inevitability. This is considering the previous Soviet Union's military assistance to Iran through North Korea, following the US/European blockade. Putin and Raeisi are taking it to the next level. Moscow and Tehran are developing a joint strategy to overcome Western collective sanctions. However, Iran has an absolutely remarkable record of breaking apart "maximum pressure" variants. Also, it is now associated with the strategic nuclear umbrella offered by the "RIC" in BRICS (Russia, India, China). Therefore, Tehran may now be planning to develop its enormous economic potential within the framework of the BRI, SCO, INSTC, Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and Russia-led Great Eurasian Partnership.

Moscow's game is pure sophistication: engaging in high-level strategic oil alliances with Saudi Arabia while deepening its strategic partnership with Iran. Soon after Patrushev's visit, Tehran announced the development of domestically-made hypersonic ballistic missiles, very similar to Russia's KH-47 M2 Khinzal. Another important news is in terms of connectivity: the partial completion of the railway track from the strategic Chabahar port to the border with Turkmenistan. This means direct railway connectivity to Central Asia, Russia, and China in the near future. In addition, there is the key role of OPEC+, the development of BRICS+, and the pan-Eurasian push to establish trade prices, insurance, security, investments in rubles, yuan, rials, etc.

There is also the fact that Tehran is unconcerned about the West's endless collective delay on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal: the most important thing now is the deepening relationship with the "RIC" in BRICS. Tehran has refused to sign the EU's flawed nuclear deal draft in Vienna. Brussels is very angry; no Iranian oil will "save" Europe, replacing Russian oil under the unreasonable limits that will be imposed next month. And Washington is very angry for betting on internal tensions to break up OPEC.

Queue to join BRICS

During the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit in Samarkand last September, it was quietly clear to all players how the Empire was cannibalizing its closest allies. And how, at the same time, the shrinking NATO environment turned inward, with a focus on the Enemy Within, relentlessly pushing ordinary citizens to line up behind total compliance with the two-pronged -- hybrid and otherwise -- war against peer competitors Russia and China.

Now contrast this with President Xi Jinping of China in Samarkand presenting China and Russia, together, as the top "responsible global force" determined to secure the emergence of multipolarity. Samarkand also reaffirmed the strategic political partnership between Russia and India (Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called it an unbreakable friendship). This was reinforced by a meeting between Lavrov and his Indian counterpart Subrahmanyam Jaishankar last week in Moscow. Lavrov praised the strategic partnership in every important area -- political, trade and economic, investment, and technology, as well as "closely coordinated action" in the UN Security Council, BRICS, SCO, and G20.

Regarding BRICS, most importantly, Lavrov emphasized that "over a dozen countries" are queuing up for membership, including Iran: "We hope the work to coordinate the criteria and principles that should underlie the expansion of BRICS will not take much time." But first, the five members need to analyze the impact of the expanded BRICS+ breakthrough. Once again: contrast. What is the EU's "response" to these developments? Come up with another sanctions package against Iran, targeting officials and entities "connected to security affairs" as well as companies, on suspicion of "violence and repression". "Diplomacy," Western-style collective, is barely considered intimidation.

Back to the real economy -- as in the gas front -- the national interests of Russia, Iran, and Turkiye are increasingly intertwined; and that will certainly impact developments in Syria, Iraq, and Libya, and will be a key factor in facilitating Erdogan's reelection next year. As it stands, Riyadh for all practical purposes has pulled off an astonishing 180-degree maneuver against Washington via OPEC+. It may signal, even in a deviant way, the start of a process of Arab interest unification, guided by Moscow. Strange things have happened in modern history. Now it seems time for the Arab world to finally be ready to join the truly important Quad: Russia, India, China, and Iran.