Possible Futures In this era of great flux, we see several ways in which major global changes could take shape in the next 15 years, from seriously challenging the nation-state system to establishing a more robust and inclusive globalization. In the body of this paper we develop these concepts in four fictional scenarios which were extrapolated from the key trends we discuss in this report. These scenarios are not meant as actual forecasts, but they describe possible worlds upon whose threshold we may be entering, depending on how trends interweave and play out:
1. “Davos World” illustrating “how robust economic growth, led by China and India, could reshape the globalization process”;
2. “Pax Americana” “how US predominance may survive the radical changes to the global political landscape and serve to fashion a new and inclusive global order”;
3. “A New Caliphate” “how a global movement fueled by radical religious identity politics could constitute a challenge to Western norms and values as the foundation of the global system”; and
4. “Cycle of Fear” proliferation of weaponry and terrorism “to the point that large-scale intrusive security measures are taken to prevent outbreaks of deadly attacks, possibly introducing an Orwellian world.”
(The quotes are taken from the report’s executive summary.)
Of course, these scenarios illustrate just a few of the possible futures that may develop over the next 15 years, but the wide range of possibilities we can imagine suggests that this period will be characterized by increased flux, particularly in contrast to the relative stasis of the Cold War era. The scenarios are not mutually exclusive: we may see two or three of these scenarios unfold in some combination or a wide range of other scenarios.
Yang menarik, laporan itu juga menyebut-nyebut soal Indonesia. Ini prediksi mereka:
“The economies of other developing countries, such as Brazil, could surpass all but the largest European countries by 2020; Indonesia’s economy could also approach the economies of individual European countries by 2020.”
Lalu apa yang akan terjadi dengan Amerika, masih menurut laporan tersebut:
“Although the challenges ahead will be daunting, the United States will retain enormous advantages, playing a pivotal role across the broad range of issues –economic, technological, political,and military– that no other state will match by 2020.”
