Game theory was created by American mathematician John von Neumann and German-born economist Oskar Morgenstern at Princeton University to address economic issues. In their 1944 book The Theory of Games and Economic Behaviour, Von Neumann and Morgenstern contended that the mathematics developed for physical sciences was an inadequate model for economics. Morgenstern and Von Neumann noticed that economics is analogous to a game in which players predict each other's movements, prompting the creation of a new field of mathematics known as game theory (Britannica, 2021).
Certain major properties of games, the most prominent of which is the total of players, can be classified. As a result, a game can be classed as a one-person, two-person, or n-person (with n greater than two) game, each having their own unique characteristics. Furthermore, a player is not always an individual; it may be a state, a company, or a group of people with similar interests. The contest in this case is between the Lakers and Heat. Besides, there are various types of game theory situations; in this case, it is referred to as a zero-sum game. In game theory, a zero-sum situation arises when one player's gain equals another's loss, resulting in no net change in benefit (Investopedia, 2020).
Game Theory Analysis
Using the "look forward, reason backward" method on this model, as shown in the diagram, reveals that the shooting team's prevailing strategy is to attempt a three-pointer. Given that the three-point shot is anticipated to be successful approximately one-fourth of the time and thus win the game immediately, the expected value (25 percent) is greater than the 43 percent possibility of a successful two-point shot times the 50 percent chance of winning in overtime (21.5 percent).
However, in one crucial aspect, this analysis oversimplifies the decision. It simply takes into account the activity of the shooting team and ignores the impact of the defending team's strategic decisions. But, with barely three seconds remaining on the clock, the Heat only sought to react to the Lakers offense only by fiercely protecting Bryant. They did not appear to be looking to entice the Lakers with a 2- or 3-point shot; rather, they seemed to adjust their play to the Lakers' offense.
Simply put, by modelling the game using simple sequential analysis, attempting a three-point shot seems like the best decision for the Lakers. Therefore, Kobe Bryant's decision to take a three-point shot was the right one. However, we must remember that one needs luck -- a random variable yet so important for success -- to drill a game winning shot. In the end, it all comes down to the shooter (the one taking the game winning shot), knowing that the three-point shot is the best strategy, one must have courage, skill, and a mentality like no other. In this case it's Kobe Bryant, one of the best shooting guards of all time known as the hardest player in the world. It could be that he had practiced the shot hundreds of times.
Adrien Wida Devachandra | Undergraduate Economics Student at the University of Indonesia | Staff of Economic Studies Division at Kanopi FEB UI
Works Cited
Brams, S. J., & Davis, M. D. (2021, January 24). Game Theory. Encyclopedia Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/science/game-theory.
