Russian-Ukranian War and The Impact on Global Economy

            Countries in Europe can be said to be direct victims of the Russia-Ukraine war. A recent report from the United Nations International Labour Organization (ILO) estimated that as of November 2022, the war has caused 2.4 million Ukrainians to lose their jobs and put unprecedented pressure on the country's social welfare system. This certainly affects the world food supply where Ukraine is one of the largest food suppliers in the world.

Europe is a major consumer and relies heavily on natural gas. Oil and gas gains recorded Brent North Sea crude oil, the international benchmark, reached a price of US$ 90 per barrel in February 2022. On March 7, 2022 the price jumped to US$ 139.13, close to a 14-year high and the price remains highly volatile.

 Gas prices have also skyrocketed, with European reference Dutch TTF surging to an all-time high of 345 euros on March 7, 2022. The price increase triggered inflation in every country in Europe and slowed the recovery of the previous disaster, the COVID-19 pandemic. In response, Europe took a number of energy rescues, one of which was to release emergency oil shells. Other measures such as vehicle speed restrictions, WFH, invitations to use bicycles to the public were also carried out to reduce energy use.

Although not as big as Europe, Asia has also been affected by the war between Russia and Ukraine. The impact can be seen from soaring commodity prices, supply chain disruptions, and inflation which will reduce people's purchasing power in the Asian region. The disruptions are due to rising oil and natural gas prices, which the Asian region is an energy importer.

In addition to energy problems, food is also a problem due to the Russia-Ukraine war. Since the outbreak of the war, the price of cereals and cooking oil has also increased. The FAO also said that there has been an increase in the number of malnourished people by 8 to 13 million people between this year and next.

CONCLUSION

            The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had a broad and significant impact on the economy, especially the global supply chain. Trade disruptions and instability in energy markets are causing uncertainty in international supply chains. Economic aspects such as distribution, production, transportation, and investment have been affected.

            The existence of disruptions in transportation routes, infrastructure, and logistics flows causes delays in international distribution which is one of the causes of supply chain instability. In addition, the decrease in production capacity also results in a scarcity of goods which can make the price of goods soar higher.

            To deal with this situation, it is very important to find a peaceful solution so that economic stability both in conflict areas and the world can be maintained. In addition, adaptation to global economic conditions needs to be carried out to maintain national interests and world economic stability.

Artikel ini sebagai salah satu syarat Tugas II Mata Kuliah Teori Hubungan Internasional dengan Dosen Pengampu: Fadlan Muzakki, S IP., M.Phil., LLM.