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Politik

US-China Competing to Grip The World, Is There A Cold Wang Going On?

26 November 2022   23:29 Diperbarui: 26 November 2022   23:57 272
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China and US flag photo: NIICE Nepal

China is indeed pursuing its ambition to occupy the position of the country with the largest economy in the world. Even the war with the US has been seen for the last two years. Many economists project that this panda country will beat the United States (US).

 It is not without reason that this prediction was issued because China is considered successful in tackling the Covid-19 pandemic with better handling than the US. Economists were so shocked by China's rapidly increasing integration that it was even called a "supply shock".

In 2005 China became a net exporter of steel for the first time and has since become the world's largest exporter. As of 2011, the number of containers used by exports and imports from China more than tripled to 129 million, while about half of the containers entering China were empty, meaning that most of these containers were used for Chinese exports.

It didn't stop there, then in 2012 the country's steel production jumped to around 700 million tons, and in 2020 it exploded to 1 billion tons. Therefore, 57% of world production comes from China and China produces more steel than any other country. Likewise ceramic tiles, electronics, clothing, toys, furniture, and other industrial goods. This certainly makes the Bamboo Curtain Country one of the most influential and dominant countries in the current global supply chain.

After excellent exports, China is strengthening energy security for the future.

According to Blacklight Research, China's crude oil imports for the first time have surpassed the United States (US). This situation is considered the peak of changes in world oil circulation.

In April 2015, China's oil imports reached 7.4 million barrels/day, while the United States adopted oil of 7.2 million barrels/day in the same month. This transition shows that the United States has successfully overcome its dependence on imported oil.

On the other hand, this situation can be an indicator of China's increasing economic strength. As the world's largest oil importer, China influences circulation and determines world oil prices. China has overtaken the United States as the largest importer China has overtaken China as the largest consumer of almost all commodities, including coal, iron ore, and almost all metals.

The result is a market movement from west to east. China is not only important to the Gulf countries, but the Gulf countries are becoming increasingly important to China.

Quoted from CNBC Indonesia, an economist named Morgan Stanley, in one of his reports said that China can achieve its target if it facilitates the movement of companies and workers which will have an impact on increasing productivity and industrial synergies.

In addition, China will be born with more 'super cities in the next few years that have a larger population than New York. With a combination of only five supercities, it will be able to accommodate 120 million people.

Morgan Stanley further said technology infrastructure is one of the investments in China, the Internet of Things, and software as part of modernization and urbanization efforts so that everything is connected and automated through fifth-generation technology or 5G.

History shows that when a new world power axis emerges that challenges the old hegemony, conflict or conflict is inevitable. The emergence of China as a new world power threatens the position of the United States as a superpower.

US President Donald Trump accused China of unfair trade practices and accused China of being a currency manipulator. Trump then moved to reward China's behavior by imposing tariffs on US goods from China.

The impact of the trade war over the last 16 months has hit the economies of both countries and even the global economy. US economic growth continued to slow throughout 2019, dropping from 3% in the first quarter of 2019 to 2% in the second quarter and 1.9% in the third quarter.

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis revised the economy in the second quarter of 2022 to a forecast released in July, showing that the economy shrank by 0.9% compared to the same period last year. Many economists don't think the United States is in a recession. On the other hand, income and expenditure for the production of all products and services increased by 1.4% per year.

On the military front, China's growing grip is seen in 68% of Chinese weapons exported to Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. China is also a significant arms supplier to 18 countries on the African continent, and most of China's weapons are destined for warring countries (the United States) and their allies.

In 2014, China's military budget increased by 12.3% or $188 billion, while the US military budget was $640 billion. China has the largest military and 2.3 million active personnel.

According to the Global Firepower Index, China is the third largest military power in the world after Russia and the United States.

China's military power is also a deterrent to border conflicts with several countries, as evidenced by the deployment of Dongfeng-21 ballistic missiles by the Chinese government on Mount Baekdu (on the border of China and North Korea) and in Shandong province. The China Sea is close to Japan's destination. The Dongfeng-21 is a thermistor with a range of 1700 to 2,100 kilometers that can reach Japan.

 But on the other hand, America does not want to lose in flapping its wings, there is an institution called the Asia Power Index, which measures many dimensions, including economic and military capabilities, economic ties and defense networks, and cultural influences. In 2021, the United States will become the most influential country in the Asia-Pacific region, with China in second place, strengthening its position in the Index's records in recent years.

A recent PEW survey of 17 developed countries showed opinion in the United States (US) was improving, while China was mostly negative.

South Korea has the highest favorable rating in the United States, with 77% of respondents rating it favorable. In Italy, Japan, France, and the UK, nearly two-thirds of respondents gave a positive assessment of the US.

China thinks otherwise, 88% of respondents in Japan have a negative view of China, Sweden 80%, Australia 78%, and South Korea 77%. Singapore was the only country that took part in the survey and made up the majority, with 64% of respondents giving China a positive rating. The survey was conducted from February 1, 2021, to May 26, 2021, and involved 18,850 respondents.

Nancy Pelosi speaks at the U.S. Capitol building, Capitol, Washington, United States, November 17, 2022 (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster).
Nancy Pelosi speaks at the U.S. Capitol building, Capitol, Washington, United States, November 17, 2022 (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster).

That's how the competition between the United States (US) and China continues to tense, added after the visit of US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan last week.

As a result, China's defense ministry has now suspended interstate military negotiations with Washington.

"The current tense situation in the Taiwan Strait is full of provocations created by the United States on its initiative, and the United States must bear full responsibility and serious consequences," Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Wu Qian said Monday, 08 August 2022.

Baselines cannot be broken and communication requires sincerity, he added, as reported by The Guardian.

The United States, including an official from the Pentagon, State Department, and White House, condemned China's move. They call it an overreaction.

Analysts and diplomats say the collapse of relations between China and the US military increases the risk of an unexpected escalation in Taiwan.

A US official noted that Chinese officials did not return calls from senior Pentagon officials amid tensions last week. But they don't see it as something other than a formal break with high-profile figures like US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.

Asked about the report, Wu added:

"China's relevant actions are a necessary warning against provocations by the United States and Taiwan and a legitimate defense of national independence and security."

US President Joe Biden expressed concern about the situation and did not expect the situation to escalate. "I'm not worried, but I'm sad they moved like that. But I don't think they should do more than what they do," Biden told reporters at Dover Air Force Base.

Pelozo's trip last week angered China, which claims Taiwan as a territory. Beijing responded by launching the first test of a Taipei ballistic missile and cutting off several lines of dialogue with Washington.

Taiwan's defense ministry said Chinese military ships, planes, and jets simulated attacks on the island and its navy in drills last week, carrying out several sea and air strikes along the center line. China is the right comprehensive strategic partner for Indonesia to achieve peace and prosperity. Despite its geographical proximity, China is a powerful nation that should not be offended.

Unlike the United States, which often uses its military power to dominate other countries. In the past, China has never attacked, threatened, or encouraged other countries to ally with it. He never imposed his political and economic ideology. This happens often, the US is jealous of China. 

Maybe because the United States has long been a superpower. He was suddenly shocked by the truly extraordinary rise of China. China values its reputation. The more jealous the US is, the easier it is for China and Indonesia to control them. "This is a complete joke," said Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Wednesday, March 8, 2022, as quoted by state media AFP.

"The US violates China's sovereignty under the guise of so-called democracy... those who insult China will be punished," he said.

China itself is not kidding. Various measures have been taken since yesterday, ranging from direct military fire to trade restrictions. China's first response to Pelosi's arrival was military action. It refers to military exercises that involve planning and organizing military forces involving air, land, and sea power, usually for security purposes.

This military action was marked by direct fire at several locations throughout Taiwan. It is known, the practice distance to the coast of Taiwan is only 20 kilometers (km).

On the other hand, the United States stated its position in defending Taiwan. Even in response to Beijing's fighter jet strikes, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken accused China of "coercive and provocative actions".

Moreover, US President Joe Biden recently said that it could make a military jump in Taiwan if China, like Russia, which invaded Ukraine, attacked it. So who wins in military battles?

According to Global Firepower, the United States is the most potent military power in the world among 142 countries. The US Army Strength Index/PwrIndx value is 0.0453. China is in third place with 0.0511 points.

China has a larger population than the United States. According to Global Firepower. China's population is 1.4 billion people. While the United States has 334 million people, China's active workforce exceeds that figure by 2 million, compared to 1.4 million in the United States. China also added 624,000 troops.

In terms of the military budget, the US has the advantage. The United States spends $770 billion on its military budget. This amount is much larger than China's total budget of 230 million US dollars.

AS flew past China in the air. The United States has 13,247 aircraft, far more than China's 3,285. The United States has 1,957 fighters and 783 attack aircraft. China currently has 1,200 airplanes and 371 fighter jets. There are more American helicopters than in China, the difference is 4,551 units. The US has 5,463 and China 912. Now there are 910 attack helicopters and China 281.

If the US controls the air, China controls the land. China has 4,120 artillery wagons compared to 2,622 and compared to 1,498 in the United States. China has more artillery than the US. There are a total of 1,734 units and 1,339 units in the United States.

China also has more mobile missiles, 3,160, more than the US, 1,366.

The United States has 6,612 tanks and 45,193 armored vehicles. China now has 5,250 tanks and 35,000 armored vehicles. America's power at sea is perfectly balanced. China wins in naval numbers with 777 against the US with only 484. However, the US has 11 aircraft carriers compared to China which only has 2 aircraft carriers. Underwater, China is stronger with 79 submarines, and the United States with 68 submarines.

It is also known that two countries possess nuclear weapons. By 2021, the United States will have 6,257 warheads, according to the Arms Control Association. In particular, 4,497 warheads can be used on military transport vehicles, 1,458 warheads are deployed as missiles and bombs, and 1,760 warheads are no longer active. China now has only 350 nuclear warheads for military transport vehicles.

When the war started, the economies of both countries slowed down and stopped the production of many goods and services.

On the import side, demand for goods such as coal, which is a source of energy for power generation in both countries, has decreased. Coal prices also fell because the US and China are the main buyers of coal.

According to the World Energy Statistics Survey, the United States and China will account for 60.4% of the world's total coal consumption in 2021. More specifically, China's share will be 53.8% and the United States will be 6.6%.

The same is true for other energy sources such as oil and natural gas. These two countries are the largest consumers in the world. American oil consumes 20.4% of world oil and 16% of Chinese oil. Meanwhile, US natural gas consumption accounts for 20.5% and China's 9.4% of total natural gas consumption.

In contrast to coal, oil and gas prices can rise because the United States is the world's largest exporter of oil and gas, with a market share of 14% for oil and 18% for gas.

Inflation is also accelerating because apart from rising electricity prices, the government tends to print money to finance wars. Interest rates will also rise to neutralize inflation. As a result, the US dollar has the potential to rise as it acts as a hedge against rising central bank interest rates. This will worsen the national debt and potentially trigger a recession or even depression.

Depression is long-term depression. During the First World War, there was a depression that lasted for approximately 10 years starting in 1929. The current global economic situation is very sensitive to inflation, and a recession is possible.

US President Joe Biden has announced that he is prepared to intervene militarily if China insults Taiwan. This was announced during a visit to Japan during a meeting with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

"Yes (about military participation in Taiwan's defense), that is our commitment, we accept the One China Policy, we signed it and all the agreements with it, but the idea that they can take it by force is not true," Biden said.

The Chinese government reacted sharply to this response. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said the Taiwan issue was China's internal problem.

"We regret and reject the US statement. Taiwan is an irreplaceable part of China's territory. The Taiwan issue is purely China's internal problem, in which foreign countries cannot interfere. On issues related to China's core interests, such as sovereignty and territorial integrity, "there is no room for compromise," Wenbin said.

"Keep your integrity and don't act against the 1.4 billion Chinese people. We call on the United States to strictly adhere to the One China Policy and Three Joint Declarations, and fulfill its important commitments in supporting Taiwan's independence," Wenbin continued.

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