The Causal Effect. Time For Healing

May 20th 2019

Now the Presidential elections are over, both sides should bear equal responsibility for reuniting the polarized populace. The elections are over, but they are still in war, and to be honest i'm so sick to read some media who told us from their perspective to provoke us again and again. We can see that the quick count was announced, with incumbent President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) winning 55% of the vote compared to Prabowo Subianto 45%. And yes, when i watched tv, all of the quick count surveys like Charta Politika, Indo Barometer, Median, Kedai Kopi and LSI Denny JA stated that Joko Widodo and Kiai Ma'ruf Amin is the winning pair. 

I watched this from Kompas TV and Metro Tv, but if you said that these two medias represent the incumbent, so i will tell you that i watched TV One too and the result is still the same. But, in the same time, Prabowo against the-all quick count-result and made a statement that he won 62% support of the electorate based on the real count of votes listed in the C1 form. 

And even worse, some people heated this situation like want to stop the real count of The General Elections of Commision (KPU -- Komisi Pemilihan Umum), and another find the causal effect for this case like, hmm... i give you one example, Cyrus Network and The Center for Strategic International Studies or CSIS, which cooperated in producing the quick count. They told the media that the Founder of CSIS has close links and business ties with high ranking officials inside the Jokowi administration. 

Nobody bothered to check, they said. Well, I think the causal effect that they made was a fucking non-sense. Even he's the closest people with the incumbent, didn't mean that he made a fake result. 

And one may look at the prolonged standoff with anxiety, if not fear. Anything, including violence could happen between today and may 22, when the General Elections Commission (KPU) announces the result of the simultaneous presidential and legislative elections. Yet, even these results can't be considered final and binding as candidates are allowed to challenge them at the Constitutional Court (MK-Mahkamah Konstitusi), the process of which will only conclude in June for the legislative elections and in August for the presidential election.

          Right now, it's time for all of us healing something left out. Sometimes in our lives, in my opinion, too much news in your lives, too much information, are not only bad for you, but can actually be toxic! Why? In my opinion, people who were given more information even it'a a real or fake information often formed a wrong opinion of what object was early on, and then clung to that information tenaciously, even in the face of new or better evidence.

          Then i ask myself about the ideal President that i want. Well, i'm not the part of the both sides (Jokowi's people or Prabowo's people), i don't give a fuck for these two candidates and they too don't have any contribution in my life so far, sorry to say. The ideal President from my perspective, the first of course from the achievement. I'm kind of a guy that believe that meritocracy should be applied in this Country. I'm not a type of a guy that choosing one candidate because he have the same religion to me or he have the same ethnic to me. What i see always from skill and capability from what candidates can bring to this nation. Because of what? My Father always told and taught me like this. He had an experience before he got the scholarship his Master's Degree in Netherland. He thought that Western People are crazy, uneducated, atheist, etc. BUT, when he got there, Western People are not bad like he thought before. He saw the world wider! He saw the world with different perspective, different sides and understand the world or problem from the both sides. When he went to Germany, Belgium or etc (for a project maybe), he told me his experience. And lesson learned. So, like my Dad always said in Indonesia language "Jangan men-generalisasi sesuatu. Pelajari dari 2 sisi. Orang dari yg sesuku ataupun seagama atau apapun blm tentu selalu benar, loyal, dll. Semua itu ga ada kaitannya dan tergantung orangnya (tidak terikat pada suku a memiliki tendensi a, dll)". That's why i don't care with the people's background. So, that's why the first point when i want to choose candidate is from their achievement and their history, it all matters to me!

          The second ideal is candidate who doesn't play religion or identity card. Most of candidates who use these things, for sure they play religion card or identity card (political identity) as their shield to hide their stupidity, attitude, etc. They don't ready for the competitive way or meritocracy system. They couldn't sell their achievement, show off the skill that they had. That's why most of candidates (in legislative and Presidential Election) playing this card to get symphaty. What they don't get from this election, they forget about the statistic. Well, they must remember that some 80 million, over 40% of eligible voters are millenials. We can't predict em (And i'm one of the millenials (90's)). Why i said that we can't predict the millenials because their voting tendencies-should they decide to vote are less predictable.

          The third ideal is their Finance Minister. Finance Minister should be choosed from the Professional, not from the party! Their capability and skill, it all matters to us. And for me The Finance Minister should be internationally respected (from their achievement and skill). This will allow Indonesia to play more serious role in geopolitical moves, including protecting the economic interests of the domestic market.

          Well, remember ideal is prayer. So, these 3 wishes are from my perspective. Feel free to disagree. Even before you read this article you choose to be golput, it doesn't matter. Golput is a choice even it doesn't fix anything. Some people choose to be golput because it's a symbol of protest and to show their dissatisfaction w/ the authoritarian regime and brave enough to do so. What's more important, we still live in democracy Country. It's democracy and not demo-crazy. If you know what it means, good! Don't do the stupid things. Because i'm sick to see both sides till today are easily drawn into bashing opponents through mockery, mostly on social media. Election should be a peaceful thing, not a parade of slander and hoaxes.

May 29th 2019

          Well, after The General Election of Commisions (KPU) announced that Jokowi-Kiai Ma'ruf win 55.5 % over Prabowo-Sandiaga (44.5%), then some Indonesians start to ruin this Country by doing an extreme things. Jokowi captured 55.5 % or over 85 Million votes (based on the data of KPU-www.kpu.go.id), it means the winning pair (Jokowi-Kiai Ma'ruf) win 17 million more than the rival Prabowo Subianto, who received 68 Million votes or 44.5 % of the vote. For me, it's over. Democracy should be a peaceful when we choose the candidate. After The General Election of Commisions (KPU) officially declared the winning pair, at the same time Police have increased security measures. Not only Police, the Company that i work for, do the same thing. I have to check Office's logistic and make sure all of this. Buying pop mie, etc for the logistic and make sure that fire extinguisher working well, and make sure that we have the contact of the police. This highest alert from Police because a "xxx supporters" planned to hold a mass protest or "people power" movement on May 22 (last week).

          When the people power goes anarchy, then the Government start restricting the use of some social media such as Whatsapp and Instagram last week. On that day, some people reported difficulties sending message via whatsapp, which is one of the country's most popular chat apps. But some people as usual, always see from the negative. Like always, virus spread like violence. "The Goverment too scared", "This dictator regime shouldn't be allowed to run this Country, for the fu*k sake why they restrict the social media?". The hatred of their saying, that's why the Government started restrcting the use of WA, etc on that day. Because of what? The message of hatred, can spread so fast in social media, and it could be heated the situation. 

Well, Indonesians are too lazy to investigate the source to determine its credibility. Because of what, we pay more attention to the content that reinforces our belief. Yes, they don't understand and will never. They see the world only from one side and some of this people have a latah syndrome. When they have friends who are the same as em, same character, same city, or maybe same race, when they see their friends hating something, so that's the reason they hate it too. 

When their family said "a" or choosing "a", they will follow or want to copy-paste something without thinking. So, that's why some people ready to die for something and ready fight each other for something that for me it's not important. And it's completely insane. Remember, like i said before. I don't care who will run this country. I'm not their people (both sides), i'm not their in-law, and ABSOLUTELY they don't have any contribution in my fuc*ing life. So, i don't care. Don't misunderstand what i'm saying. I just don't understand the way of thinking of their supporters.

And everytime i see the same chaos like this, that's why i always said in my previous articles about the important of Pancasila. Pancasila embraces diversity and plurality of ethnicity, culture and faith. And back to the history, we should know the history like Istiqlal stands as a symbol of religious plurality and Pancasila. 

Why i said this, because, my first point, we have to remember as Soekarno's wishes as symbolized in the Istiqlal Mosque built across the Cathedral. That we can accept the differences, and respect each other. Bhinneka Tunggal Ika-Unity in Diversity. Both Istiqlal and Cathedral shows religious harmony such as during Christmas mass, the Mosque's parking lot is used by the Cathedral congregation and vice-versa during Idul Fitri prayers. This is the real Indonesia in my opinion. Respect each other.  

My second point is, both Cathedral and Istiqlal symbolizes freedom. And in addition, like so many people noted, everytime i watched Indonesia Lawyers Club, everytime that talk show discuss about Pancasila, well the Mosque was designed by Frederich Silaban, a Christian Architect of Batak ethnic group in North Sumatera. I think like my two points that i already mentioned, Teachers in schools should teach Pancasila again to the new Generation. This is the important thing for the new Generation, and they will not easily trapped into race's issues.

          And my last point, these issues is the same issues that i heard,watched, etc in 5 or 10 years ago. The same thing. My point, Elon Musk right now think how to move People to Mars, and Indonesia from 10 years ago walk in the same area and we discuss the same thing. Still stuck! I do hope that Indonesia will move fast like Singapore someday, when this nation start meritocracy system (accept differences in race, religion, etc) like Singapore did.

June 15th 2019

          Well, When i was on my way to go home (last week June 9th 2019), from Juanda International Airport to Soekarno-Hatta International Airport, i read a quote somewhere in the plane (Magazine, woman who's sitting next to me) "Marketing is like sex, only losers pay for it". Only losers pay for it. Good one. Haha. Well i will discuss this later. But what i want to discuss right now is about start-up. I do believe that ideas without implementation, or without exceptional team to implement them are like assholes and opinions: everyone gets one.

          I have ever had one experience about start-up. I think my idea is fuc*ing awesome and i do believe it will go insane and i will get maximum profit. But at the end? It all messed up! It's not easy as i think about looking for any investors. When confronted with any startup idea, ask yourself one simple question : How many miracles have to happen for the succeed? If the answer is zero, you're not looking for any start up, you're just dealing with a regular business like a laundry. All you need is capital and minimal execution, and assuming a two-way market, you'll make some profit. To be a startup, i think, miracles need to happen. But precise number of miracles. Most succesful startup depend on one miracle only. Let's say Gojek. It was getting people to let strangers in their car/motorcycle. I don't talk about supply and demand. I talk about how miracle works in startup company. Oke, then, let's say google (even Google is not a start-up Company) but Google creating and exponentially better search service than anything that had existed to date. And now OVO and Go-Pay, it was getting people to book/order car/motorcycle via Gojek or Grab and Customer can pay with their services (OVO or Gopay) from their (customer) phone. This is a consumer-workflow miracle.

          Well, the most important decision in startup, as in life, is picking a partner. It will determine everything that comes after. With the right team, no man or organization can stand against you, and you will ultimately triumph. With the wrong team, you'll produce internal problems even faster than the external world can.

          Right now, in my weekend, i just think about my 2 ideas startup hopefully can be implemented as soon as possible. I just need a people who make me closer to the investors then i'm ready for any presentation around Jakarta. Remember, idea without implementation is like asshole and opinion, everyone gets one.

          Anyway, when you have an idea to build a start-up, the first question from the investor always about the business model. At first, i don't know the detail of business model. Then, i search this in Google. Well, google really really help me, as always. Like i said before, Google creating and exponentially better search service than anything. Think of your experience using Google. I'm guessing you have upon occasion typed things into that search box that reveal a behavior or thought. You may have also noticed a certain honesty in Google searches when looking at the way this search engine automatically tries to complete your queries. Its suggestions are based on the most common searches that other people have made. So, auto-complete clues us into what people are googling. In fact, auto-complete can be a misleading. Google won't suggest certain words it deems inappropriate such as "porn" and "fuck". This means auto-complete tells us that people's Google thoughts are less racy than they actually are. Even so, some sensitive stuff often still comes up.

          Google just the web for us for searching because Google is search engine. On social media, people always search how fake they are in there. Social media have a huge impact to all of us. We can hate people which is we don't know who they are, we just hate em because we read their status or anything else. On social media, you have a pleasure to make yourself look good. Your online presence is not anonymous, after all. You're courting an audience and telling your friends, family members, colleagues, acquaintances and strangers who you are. I have an example. On facebook, instagram, we show our cultivated selves, not our true selves.

          To gain a better understanding of what social media misses, let's return for the first sentence that i said today. I read quote "Marketing is like sex, only losers pay for it". I have few friends, real friends. Not a social media friends. Some man who think they are so handsome when they pay for sex. They think they are strong when they make a woman moaning in bed. What i think in the first place only losers who tell to everyone and happy that they can make satisfied their sex-friend. When you pay em, they will tell you what you want to hear. It's a goddamn true sentence, marketing is like sex. Only losers pay for it. Oke, let me tell you about something miss in social media. I'll tell you, let's talk about pornography. First, we need to address the common belief that the internet is dominated by smut. This isn't true. The majority of content on the internet is nonpornographic. For instance, og the top ten most visited websites, not one is pornographic. So, the popularity of porn, while enormous, shouldn't be overstated.

          Yet, that said, taking a close look at how we like and share pornography makes it clear that Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter only provide a limited window into what's truly popular on the internet. There are large subsets of the web that operate with massive popularity but little social presence. The most popular video of all time, as i know till i write this article, is PSY. The Korean Rapper. With his song "Gangnam Style". This goofy pop music video that satirizes trendy koreans. It's been viewed about 3,3 billion times on youtube (June 15th 2019) alone since its debut in 2012. And its popularity is clear no matter what site you are on. It's been shared across different social media platforms tens of million of times.

          The most pornographic video of all time maybe "Great sex" or "karma sutra", etc, it's been viewed less than 3.3 Billion PSY's video "Gangnam Style". Let's say 90 million or 35 times less than PSY "Gangnam Style", it means thirty five views of Gangnam Style, there has been about at least one view of "Great sex" or "Karma sutra". If social media gave us an accurate view of the videos people watched "Great sex" or "Karma Sutra" should be posted millions of times. But this video has been shared on social media only a few times and always by porn stars, not by average users. People clearly don't feel the need to advertise their interest in this video to their friends.

          Why this happen? Because people when they have the video of "Great Sex" or "Karma Sutra", they will keep it or will share it via social media by using Whatsapp, Telegram or maybe via flashdisk. That's how virus spread. Some of my friends who are addicted to sex and watching porn, some of em, in the outside, always have an "angel" fashion. FAKE! Always talking about heaven and hell. Can you distinguish the original one? It's not easy, my friend!

          Let's return to business model. When i searched in Google about business model. I get so many knowledge in there. By the way, i will tell and make a correlation about business model and about a specific theme that i already said. There's one labor market women have always dominated : prostitution. Its business model is built upon a simple premise. And this business model is about supply and demand, like all we know that men have wanted more sex than they could get for free. So, what inevitably emerges is a supply of women, for the right price, are willing to satisfy this demand. Supply and demand. In Indonesia, of course, prostitution is illegal. We all know the headlines "menjemput rezeki", that's why she's in jail right now because it's illegal. Like i said before, i have few friends like this, no matter they are single or married. They pay for sex. And some make a joke, money can't buy happiness but i can buy sex. LOSERS! Haha. Why this happened? Take this logic sense for an example. An economic reason.  Girl who's working in the bar, her salary is Rp 3.900.000 a month (UMR-minimum wage). She lived in apartment. She wants Apple watch, Apple iphone, and another fancy things. Can she afford it all without any incentive? She received Rp 3.900.000 a month as her payroll, working with her own hands she got minimum wage while selling her body Rp 500.000 -- Rp 1.000.000 for a sex. She can receive Rp 12.000.000 a month maybe almost 3 times of her salary. She learned that there's a demand for it and men are willing to pay for the price. Match! Supply and demand.

          Even when a woman raise her price from Rp 750.000 to Rp 1.500.000, her price hikes, double price, i do believe that practically there's no decrease in demand. But what's the difference? She received more, the demand is still there. Maybe when she raised to Rp 1.500.000, there's no decrease in demand, but she's still the same. She is the same girl, dress the same and had the same conversation. But what the difference? She will get a romantic dinner and drink wine maybe. She will meet a different class of people that she never met before. That's why in my logic sense, when a girl had a price 80 Million "Menjemput Rezeki", there's still a demand in there, someone who can afford for it.

          Marketing is like sex, only losers pay for it. Yap! Only losers pay for it. By the way, when so many man addicted to sex, they will never understand about life. But after KARMA slap right in their face, i do believe they will..... i forget the english.... the so-called in Indonesia Language "Tobat". When they have a daughter, then their daughter pregnant when she's in high school, then karma slap their face, they will understand the impact of what they did when they were young.

         

Well, my article based on my point of view. My article don't representation any Company. What i write always based on my logic sense and from what i think and what i analyze. What i love is all about logic sense, numbers and i love to analyze something. I love economy and statistic. This article is all about social and politic. And i don't think it's taboo when it comes to knowledge and logic sense. By the way, i want to finish this article. I love to analyze, i love data and numbers, but what can't be statistic or logic sense? Love. Nope. I mean when we love someone we have to use our logic sense, don't be so so so stupid. But my point is, you know the quote "Love is blind". I do believe that. Doesn't mean that when we love someone then we don't use our logic sense. NO! Absolutely no! Yap love is blind. Everytime i see a woman who's smart and independent, i'm blind. Blind means i don't care her religion, background, etc i will chase her till she's mine at the first place. Because of what, smart and independent more interesting than pretty and white-skin. When you have money, you can pay for it. I'm sorry, Michael Jackson can turn from black to white. This is my point. That's why everytime i watch Mata Najwa, i always ask myself "Can i marry your brain, Najwa?".

          Enjoy reading mine, if you have an advice or discuss about this article, you can tell me and sent me a message. Thanks.