Before the incident, Trump’s electability was already strong compared to the Democratic incumbent, and the possibility of appointing Kamala Harris was never on the table. Trump enjoyed robust support in key battleground states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, often leading Biden by several percentage points in various polls (Politico, 2024). Moreover, Trump’s rising electability since 2016 has been driven in part by dissatisfaction with the economic policies of the Biden era, which many argue have weakened America’s economic hegemony. Biden's administration, through initiatives such as the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan (NPR, 2021), has faced criticism for potentially overheating the economy.
Trump’s potential re-election could have significant repercussions for the U.S. economy. His aggressive campaign, backed by unwavering support from the Republican Party, could lead to policies that favor deregulation, tax cuts, and a tough stance on international trade. A 10% trade tariff policy applied universally would introduce significant uncertainty into international trade. Reflecting on the years 2018-2019, this uncertainty led to a 2% decline in industrial production in Europe. This drop occurred as companies potentially postponed investments or expansions due to the unpredictability surrounding tariffs and trade policies (CNBC, 2024). Moreover, there would be spillover effects from the domestic tax cuts proposed by presidential candidate Donald Trump. Besides providing incentives for domestic growth, this policy would also attract investment from other countries into the United States, particularly from major foreign companies operating within the U.S.
Ruiza Rhavenala Rahman | Manajer Divisi Kajian | Ilmu Ekonomi 2022
References
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