Investor bias is closely linked to the stock market performance during Donald Trump's presidency. Overall, the Dow Jones Index saw a remarkable surge during Trump's tenure from 2016 to 2020, surpassing the performance of the preceding years. In fact, when Donald Trump was elected president in 2016, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit an unprecedented all-time high.
The Electability
Given its intriguing nature, could it be true that investors expect the assassination attempt on Donald Trump to actually boost his electability in the upcoming election and fortify the position of the Republican Party that backs him? A binary method approach can be employed to analyze the decisions made by both Donald Trump and the Republicans, where each has two choices. This method examines how their choices influence each other and determines the most advantageous strategy for both parties.
As a result of these events, we can see how Donald Trump as the presidential candidate of the United States, and the Republican Party as the supporting party, might react. Presidential candidate Donald Trump has two options, first to continue his campaign more aggressively, trying to gain sympathy by saying that he is a victim. The second is to change his approach, becoming more moderate or calm, to avoid another assassination attempt, and political stability, in this case a security issue. The Republican Party, as the supporting party, has two options, first, continue to fully support Trump. Second, distancing themselves from Trump and possibly choosing another safer candidate to avoid another assassination attempt and stabilize political dynamics.
In binary game theory, we classify the outcomes of players' decisions using 1s and 0s. A “1” is assigned when a player's strategy successfully achieves their goal, while a “0” is given when the strategy fails to reach the desired outcome. In table 2, the equilibrium, or Nash equilibrium, is reached when presidential candidate Donald Trump maintains his aggressive campaign tactics while the Republican Party continues to steadfastly support his actions. This equilibrium represents the most stable outcome, as both parties achieve their optimal results by adhering to this strategy. For Donald Trump, this presents a prime opportunity to leverage his post-assassination strategy to expand his supporter base.
The Nash equilibrium strategy proves to be politically sound, especially since Trump’s rival in the Republican Party, Nikki Haley, has faced difficulties with internal party electability. As of March 2024, Donald Trump’s popularity among American voters remains higher than Nikki Haley’s (Statista, 2024). Consequently, replacing Trump with another candidate could pose significant risks for the Republican Party because Donald Trump has bigger electability than Nikki Haley. In political systems where the support of the voter base is critical, changing candidates can result in a significant loss of support, especially if voters feel that the replacement candidate does not have the same appeal. If Donald Trump is replaced with Nikki Haley, the Republican Party will lose the voter’s.
In addition to the strategic maneuvers of Trump and his party, the strategies employed by the Democratic Party and the responses of American voters are crucial factors shaping the electoral landscape. These dynamics will undoubtedly play a significant role in determining the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Swing voters are faced with two choices, firstly After the attempted shooting, some swing voters may feel sympathy for Trump. They may think that he is a victim and that the attacks against him are unfair. This could make them more likely to support Trump. Second, there are also swing voters who may feel that the instability and polarization brought by Trump is too dangerous. They could be worried that supporting Trump means supporting more chaos and risk in the future, so they might turn to other more moderate candidates. The democratic party also have two options. Firstly, the Democratic Party has the option to attack Presidential Candidate Donald Trump by framing and polarizing the assassination attempt. However, this approach is risky as it could lead to losing swing voters and median voters across the United States who are wary of extreme and radical tactics. Second, the Democratic Party could choose to be more moderate, by condemning acts of attack, and empathizing with the attempted assassination of presidential candidate Donald Trump. This will provide an advantage for the Democratic party to gain sympathy from swing voters and median voters.
Based on the analysis of the payoff matrix in binary game theory, it would be more strategic for the Democrats to focus on other issues, as swing voters are likely to distance themselves from Trump and lean toward the Democratic ticket. This approach can help avoid a boomerang effect, where swing voters might otherwise sympathize with Donald Trump. Moderate voters (median voters) tend to prefer a regime that offers more stable and secure policy decisions.
Make America Great Again
The electability of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is undeniably influenced by the assassination attempt during his campaign. The incident had a significant positive impact, and Donald Trump successfully leveraged it to boost his electability. He is portrayed as a steadfast and courageous leader, enhancing his appeal to the public. However, this event has sparked a “plot hole” that has evolved into a theoretical analysis among political observers. Much like the Marvel Universe series "WHAT IF," it raises the question: what if Donald Trump had not been targeted in the assassination attempt?
