US Vs Everybody? [US Bargaining Position in The Israel-Palestine Conflict and Their Interest in The Middle East]

Bandung, 07/11/2023

The never-ending conflict between Israel and Palestine seems to have made many countries fed up. The issue of one land with two names has emerged again rapidly and has captured the attention of the world community following the recent attacks carried out by Hamas, Palestinian militants on October 7 2023, on a number of major cities in Israel. Around 5,000 rockets were launched by Hamas which hit various land, sea and air points in Israel and succeeded in killing around 1,400 civilians and taking around 200 more Israelis hostage. The Hamas leadership, through its spokesman, Khaled Qadomi, stated that the attack was a reaction to the atrocities and violence that the Palestinian people have felt for years. This statement was also confirmed by the Hamas Military Commander, Mohammad Deif, who revealed that this act of aggression was carried out as a form of response to the 17-year blockade that occurred in Gaza which resulted in difficulties in getting logistical aid into Gaza and a clean water crisis. felt by the Palestinian people. Meanwhile, the Israeli defense force, IDF (Israel Defense Forces) was not just silent about the retaliation. In response, they intensified bomb attacks in Gaza and killed up to 9,000 people, most of whom were children, and they even threatened to launch genocide in Gaza. 

Israel's behavior seems unstoppable. Until now, 31 days have passed, they are still carrying out massacres in Gaza which resulted in 10,022 Gaza residents being killed (This is according to the latest news conveyed by the Ministry of Health in the Hamas Enclave Region (7/11/2023)). Meanwhile, in response to this non-humanitarian incident, the decision to cease fire in Gaza was called for by the UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, through his spokesman, Stephane Dujarric, on Friday, October 27 2023 and received 120 votes from various countries who also agreed. this decision and 14 countries opposed it, while 45 other countries "abstained". The 14 countries that oppose this are of course Israel itself, and interestingly the United States. The US has indeed expressed its support for Israel, and even considers that the ceasefire plan will only benefit Hamas. That is what the Spokesperson for the US National Security Council (NSC), John Kirby, told the media on October 24 2023. Likewise with Israel, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that a ceasefire will not happen.

"The call for a ceasefire is a call for Israel to surrender to Hamas, surrender to terrorism... this will not happen," he said, vowing that Israel would "fight until this battle is won." (reported from CNN). 

This has at least triggered wild speculation that has enveloped the minds of political observers about the political interests of the United States in the Middle East, where currently, the House of Representatives has approved a military aid package for Israel, worth 14.3 billion US Dollars or the equivalent of 225.4 trillion Rupiah. . The US statement of rejection of the ceasefire option proposed by the UN, especially stating that a ceasefire would only benefit Hamas, has dragged discussions among several parties to the notion that a ceasefire will provide an opportunity for Hamas to strengthen itself, including its international network with countries such as Russia. and China (even including Indonesia) for a much bigger war in the future. Or in simpler terms, a ceasefire would only be a temporary period without bloodshed to postpone a much larger war, as had happened previously at the end of the first world war. The armistice was signed on November 11, 1918, but in the end it was only a period of delay before the Treaty of Versailles and the outbreak of World War II.

Of course, this speculation is a big consideration for the US to agree to the ceasefire issue in Gaza, because Palestine already has quite a lot of supporting actors, including Iran, a country that has a grudge with the US after the killing of two influential figures in their country. And once again, this poses a significant threat to the US.

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As we all know, the Middle East is an important region for the US economy. In the post-World War II period at that time, US oil companies controlled around 42% of the oil fields in the Middle East (Solichien, UI, 2008). Meanwhile, if we look at the mapping of alignments, most of the Middle Eastern countries chose to stand behind Palestine, such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran and Jordan. If military aggression continues to occur in Gaza, the political stability of the US (as a supplier of funds and supporters of Israel) and the Middle East will tend to be disturbed, which of course will affect their economic stability as well. So the US is currently actually facing a quite dilemmatic bargaining position. This is because, although Israel is the ally in the Middle East closest to the US, it cannot guarantee that their influence can control the stability of US relations with other Middle Eastern countries who are angry at the massive aggressive actions over Gaza.

According to the opinion above, the US decision to reject the ceasefire proposal by the UN regarding Israel's repeated attacks seems to conclude that the US has given up its biggest asset, namely oil. But of course it's not that easy, they must have also thought about all the consequences and actions that can be taken to overcome the occurrence of undesirable things, this will also lead to diplomacy or agreements that have been agreed upon by the Middle East, including Israel. with the US. Moreover, the Israeli Prime Minister also said that their party would stop if the people held hostage by Hamas were released again. So the decision to reject the ceasefire does not seem absolute. However, it needs to be underlined that whether there is a ceasefire or not, in the author's opinion it will still bring this war to the title "US Vs Everybody".

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