CHINA’S aspiration for greater regional leadership is unfortunately met with fierce challenge from the U.S. as well as other regional great-powers (Japan and India). Following the rise of China’s assertiveness, the U.S. introduced pivot (later rebranded as rebalancing) while her ally, Japan, has reinterpreted her constitution so that allowing Tokyo to be more active both politically and militarily abroad. India, for her part, introduced look east policy while trying to strengthen her maritime power to prevent Chinese incursion into Indian Ocean.
Facing the prospect of containment (instead of accommodation), the question of paramount importance for China’s leaders is: how can China displace the U.S (and therefore, U.S led regional order) from Asia?
China seems to believe that the U.S.-led regional order is based on U.S.-led political-security regional order. This political-security order in turn is based on the U.S. regional alliance system which is known as hub-and-spoke system and encompassing Japan, South Korea, Australia, Philippines, and Thailand. This alliance system grants the U.S. access to forward bases that ensures her ability to rapidly project her power throughout the region whenever crisis erupts.
Without such bases, the U.S. won’t be able to effectively projecting forces and, therefore, will have only marginal influence in a crisis. Thus, curtailing U.S. capability to respond to a regional crisis means much less U.S.’ influence upon regional order.
So, as the logic goes, breaking this alliance system will lead to a breaking up of the U.S.-led regional order. Thus, the question now moved toward: how can China break up U.S.’ alliance system?
Alliance, by its nature, means an insurant. By inking an alliance, the U.S. has insured her allies that she will help defending them in times of crisis. Just as how commercial insurance company works, the success of the ‘business’ rested on the insurer’s credibility. As long as U.S.’ allies believe that Washington will fulfill her words, the alliance system will hold up. However, if U.S.’ allies do not believe in her words – thereby doubting the credibility of her words, the alliance system will unravel.
New question emerge as the consequence: how can China damage U.S.’ credibility so much that it will lead to unraveling of its regional alliance system?
For sure, there is no better way to damage one’s credibility than proving that one is unable to fulfill its words. Put it another way, China must shows U.S.’ allies that the U.S. will not come by their side when they needed her. That means instigating a conflict with U.S.’ allies, making sure they will call for U.S.’ assistance, and, at the same time, making sure that the U.S. will not fulfill her insurant.
It is a dangerous game to play for sure. Beijing must do its best to make sure the U.S. will not come by her allies side or else it will face a war with the U.S. – a grim possibility given both sides possession of nuclear weapons.
In order to succeed, China must be pretty sure that conflict she is instigating is important enough for U.S.’ allies so that they will call for U.S.’ assistance, but that the conflict per se is not important enough from U.S.’ perspective so that making it highly unlikely for her to fulfill her insurance. Put it simply, China must make sure that the conflict per se represents high-stakes from U.S. allies’ perspectives while a negligible one from U.S.’ perspective.
Bunch of uninhabited rocks in South China Sea (and East China Sea) will do just fine. It is a matter of sovereignty and territorial integrity – which can hardly be compromised – from the perspective of U.S. allies. While from U.S.’ perspective, those rocks represent no more than what they are; that are rocks. Those rocks have little strategic value and, thus, in themselves have little relevance for U.S.’ national interests.
ENTERING the fourth year of China’s surge of assertiveness, it seems that China’s strategy has achieved some success. In South China Sea, U.S.’ responses are both lackluster while showing degree of indecisiveness. Arguably, the most infamous among those is U.S.’ failure to properly assist Philippines in protecting its sovereignty in Scarborough Shoal. However, responding such crisis with more resolve entails more risks. For sure, lower-risks option is available in the form of accommodating China’s aspiration by trying to develop some form of joint leadership in Asia region. While it is not too late for the U.S. to reverse the negative trend, she surely has much to do.  Written by: Zidny Ilman. Zidny Ilman is the Coordinator of Indonesia Berbicara's Study Center (Pusat Kajian).
