"If, for example, there is another pandemic, likely, Indonesia will still be able to record fairly good economic growth in 2023," said Poltak in the webinar "Economy Outlook 2023 & Inflation-Recession Pressure: What does it mean for insurance and media insurance", Tuesday (20 /12/2022).
Poltak explained this was because most of Indonesia's economy consisted of private consumption which grew by around 4-5%. This component is the driving force for 50% of Indonesia's economic growth.
"So it's hard to imagine the Indonesian economy going into a recession because half of its components are private spending and it's still growing by 4-5%. If [private spending] holds up, then Indonesia will most likely not enter a recession," he said.
Looking at these components, Poltak is optimistic that Indonesia's fear of a recession is very low. However, he acknowledged a slowdown in the global economy, which is usually associated with export-driven manufacturing, had also contributed to the recession.
At the same time, Indonesia's economic activities rely on local activities, namely activities that are produced and consumed domestically. So the impact of the global economic recession is relatively small.
"Indonesia's economy is growing and private consumption continues to drive Indonesia's economic growth, and with that investment needs and financing needs will increase because people's activities adjust to the new normal," he concluded.
Conclusion:
The year 2023 is relatively risky, the world economy is in a dangerous condition and it is predicted that it will continue to deteriorate in the next 2 years and is caused by soaring inflation, high-interest rate pressures, economic slowdown, and the problem of damage to global supply chains due to the Russia-Ukraine war that is the world's food and energy barn. Then what about Indonesia? Indonesia's economy will increasingly face "dark" global uncertainties in 2023. Therefore, it is considered that the 2023 State Budget must be more optimistic and vigilant. However, on the other hand, Indonesia's economy will continue to grow by 4-5% next year and Indonesia itself still has a chance of 5.3% this year and slightly weaken by 5% next year.
