Head of the Fiscal Policy Agency (BKF) Febrio Kacaribu stated that Indonesia's economic recovery is still very strong after the negative growth of the Indonesian economy due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
According to BKF calculations, economic growth in the third quarter of 2022 will be higher than in the second quarter of 2022 which rose to 5.44% yoy. The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) will publish economic growth figures for the third quarter of 2022 on 7 November 2022.
Then what about the fate of the Indonesian economy in 2023?
Febrio revealed that the Indonesian economy will increasingly face "dark" global uncertainties in 2023. Therefore, it is considered that the 2023 State Budget must be more optimistic and vigilant.
On the other hand, Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia (BI) Dody Budi Waluyo said Indonesia's economy will continue to grow by 4-5% next year.
According to IMF estimates, Indonesia itself still has a 5.3% chance this year and will slightly weaken by 5% next year. This growth is much faster than in China and the United States.
China is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2022 and increase slightly by 4.4% in 2023. In contrast, the US is expected to grow by 1.6% in 2022 and then decrease to 1% in 2023.
Indonesia is projected to be able to achieve economic growth in 2023 under the shadow of a global recession. In addition, economists also estimate the possibility of a recession in Indonesia is low.
Head of the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) Research Division Poltak Hotradero said Indonesia's real economic growth fluctuated in the 2010-2022 period. However, overall, Indonesia was able to maintain economic growth above 5%, except during the 2020 pandemic.
Regarding the recession, Poltak said that Indonesia could experience a recession, one of which is due to a very severe shock in the financial sector. If you look at the situation in 1998, Indonesia experienced shocks in the financial sector. Because of shocks to the banking system not only in the financial sector but also very high inflation.
However, Poltak assesses that Indonesia's financial sector is in a fairly good position compared to 1998. Another factor is the global pandemic. On the other hand, Poltak hopes that there will be no more pandemics.
