The Meaning of World's Military Budget Fluctuation and The Theory of Distrust

         We see before our eyes how small transactions appear orderly. World social and economic life continues. These times really put us in a warm and very comfortable place.However, it is possible that behind the curtain of social and economic life, some events are taking place that are hidden from some people. Yes, when we are making a transaction to buy dinner, there are massive and progressive transactions out there.

           These transactions are due to nothing other than the buying and selling of weapons and military investments. Maybe while we are enjoying delicious food, policies and exchanges of weapons are taking place somewhere in the world, shaping the course of global life that is difficult to predict.

         Buying and selling in the military sector is not like buying and selling food, because it is closely related to the security and defense situation of a country. The increase in cash flows in military investments reflects increasing levels of wariness and uncertainty among countries.

I.Theory of Distrust and Uncertainty

         The Theory of Distrust and Uncertainty suggests that a community may not trust another community due to past conflicts, uncertainty about each other’s intentions, or cultural differences.

Potential Dynamics

1)Feeling Threatened and Anxious
           Imagine if group X felt worried about what Group Y and Z are doing now. This is because group X thinks that group Y and Z  might be getting powerful or doing something threatening.

2)Arms Race Cycle
           Even if group X didn't have a plan to get stronger aggressively. They might start preparing for defense or making themselves stronger to be ready as potential threats

3)Security Dilemma
           When a community wants to do something to defend themselves, it can make other groups do something to do the same thing. This comes to a cycle of not trusting anyone and everyone trying to seek power. Finally, distrust becomes even stronger.
 

II.Implication of this Theory

1)Aggressive Defensive Actions
           Initially, Group X just wanted to defend their group, but because of the lack of trust, they might end up doing actions that look aggressive to make their defense become stronger.
2)Reproduction of Uncertainty
           Worries about safety and not trusting each other might create uncertainty and conflicts. This just makes a cycle keep going which no one fully trusts other groups.

III.Data shows increased Military investment

          Empirical data shows an increasing trend in military investment in many countries. According to information from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the global military expenditure budget in 2020 reached 1,981 billion US dollars, an increase from 2019. Several countries experienced an increase in military budgets in the 2022-2023 period. Finland saw its military budget increase by 36%. Lithuania saw its military budget increase by 27%. Sweden saw its military budget increase by 12%. Poland provides a larger share of the military budget at 11%. Apart from that, Russia experienced an increase in its military budget of 9.2% to 86.4 billion US dollars.

1) Finland
        The year 2023 sees a remarkable increase in Finland's military budget, achieving growth of 36% and reaching a total of 6.1 billion euros. This figure marks the highest jump among the countries discussed. This increase was significantly contributed by increases in operational expenditure for the Defense Forces, procurement of defense materials, and support for the activities of national defense organizations. While in 2022, Finland allocated 2.05% of its GDP to defense, the target is to reach 2.52% in 2026.

2) Lithuania
        In 2023, Lithuania's military budget increases by 27%, reaching 1.5 billion euros. This increase reflects Lithuania's strong commitment to strengthening its national defense capabilities, especially in the context of the conflict initiated by Russia. The share of Lithuania's GDP allocated to defense in 2022 is 2.15%, with a target set at 2.52% in 2026.

3) Sweden
         Sweden's military budget will increase by 12% in 2023, reaching 8.3 billion euros. Although this increase is moderate compared to previous years, it reflects Sweden's determination to increase its defense spending as part of its Total Defense strategy. The strategy aims to increase military spending to reach 2% of GDP by 2026. In 2022, Sweden allocated 1.9% of its GDP to defense, with a target of increasing to 2.52% in 2026.

4) Poland
          2023 sees a significant increase of 11% in Poland's military budget, reaching a total of 16.5 billion US dollars. This increase reflects Poland's desire to increase its capabilities and readiness, especially as a potential NATO member. Although in 2019 Poland allocated only 1.8% of its GDP to defense, the plan is to gradually increase this to three percent by 2023.

5) Russia
          Russia's military budget shot up by nearly 70%, reaching more than 86 billion US dollars in 2024. This extraordinary increase      reflects Russia's huge spending in hybrid warfare against Ukraine and other countries that oppose its interests and ambitions. Even though it was only about one percent of GDP in 2019, Russia plans to keep increasing it indefinitely as long as there is a threat from NATO or other adversaries.

6) Global
         Total global military spending increased by 3.7 percent in real terms in 2022, reaching a new record of 2,240 billion US dollars. The value is equivalent in IDR (using the current exchange rate, 1 USD = 15,505 IDR), which is around 34,729.2 trillion IDR.

IV.Forecast for Some Countries

1) United States
            The US is projected to increase its defense spending every year until 2033. US defense spending will reach 746 billion US dollars in 2023. This prediction estimates an increase in defense spending to reach 1.1 trillion US dollars in 2033. This consistent increase may be due to various factors such as ongoing military operations, modernization of military hardware, research and development, and personnel costs.The value is equivalent in IDR (using the current exchange rate, 1 USD = 15,505 IDR), which is around 17,055.5 trillion IDR.

2) United Kingdom
             The UK Defense Minister stated that military spending will double from current levels to £100 billion by 2030⁴. This increase can be attributed to the UK's commitment to increase its armed forces budget to 3% of GDP. The increase in spending will likely be used to procure new equipment, modernize existing systems, and increase personnel costs. The value is equivalent in IDR (at the current exchange rate, 1 GBP = 19,452.57 IDR), which is around 1,945.26 trillion IDR.

3) China
            Projections show that China's military spending is expected to reach 531 billion US dollars by 2030. This rise may be due to China's continuous efforts to modernize its military and assert its influence in the Asia-Pacific region.

4) India
           Projections show that India's military spending is expected to reach 183 billion US dollars by 2030. This increase can be attributed to India's continued efforts to modernize its military and maintain the balance of power in the region.

5) South Korea
         Projections show that South Korea's military spending is expected to reach 82.4 billion US dollars by 2030. This increase may be due to South Korea's continued efforts to modernize its military and maintain the balance of power in the region.

6) Japan
         Projections show that Japan's military spending is expected to reach 62.9 billion US dollars by 2030. This increase can be attributed to Japan's continued efforts to modernize its military and maintain a balance of power in the region.

7) Australia
        Projections show that Australia's military spending is expected to reach 44.4 billion US dollars by 2030. This increase may be due to Australia's ongoing efforts to modernize its military and maintain a balance of power in the region.

Asia Power Index 203
        According to the Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, several countries are expected to experience significant increases in military spending through 2030. For example, China's military spending is projected to reach 531 billion dollars, India 183 billion dollars, and Russia 123 billion dollars.

        These suggest that many countries plan to increase military spending in the next few years. However, these are only predictions and actual expenditures may vary based on a number of factors, including changes in the global security environment, economic conditions and policy decisions. Please note that these predictions are based on currently available data and are subject to change in the future.
 
Global Trends
           Global military spending in real terms increased by 3.7 percent in 2022, reaching a new record of 2,240 billion US dollars. It is predicted that this trend will continue due to various factors such as geopolitical tensions, technological advances driving the modernization of armed forces, and internal security concerns in various countries. According to Stockholm International Peace Research, global military and defense spending is expected to grow by nearly 40% by 2030, with much of that spending likely to go to defense technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), Cyber security and other defense technologies.

V. Conclusion
           Global military budget growth reached a new record in 2022, with an increase of 3.7 percent to 2,240 billion US dollars. Projections show that this trend will continue through 2030, with growth in global military and defense spending expected to reach nearly 40 percent. This increase was triggered by geopolitical tensions, technological advances in the modernization of armed forces, and internal security concerns in various countries.

          Distrust and Uncertainty Theory reflects the dynamic in which worry and fear between countries can trigger increased military spending. Cycles of arms races and security dilemmas can emerge when one community feels threatened and prepares, prompting similar responses from other communities. As a result, defensive actions initially aimed at self-protection can appear aggressive, while distrust continues to develop.

           Empirical data shows significant increases in the military budgets of several countries, such as Finland, Lithuania, Sweden, Poland and Russia. These improvements are largely directed at enhancing national protection capabilities. Nonetheless, military budget projections for several countries, including the United States, United Kingdom, China, India, South Korea, Japan, and Australia, indicate a commitment to increasing military spending in the next few years.
 
         These trends have serious implications, including increasingly aggressive defensive actions, transcription reproduction, and a continuing cycle of mutual distrust between countries. While global military budgets are increasing, the real challenge is how to understand and address the root causes of disease and promote sustainable international security and cooperation. These projections should be understood as estimates that may change based on global conditions, security and policy developments in the future.

VI.References

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