This means the acceleration of national efforts on a large scale. Over the last decade, energy productivity has risen by only 0.7% annually and the share of carbon nil energy has only increased by 0.1 percentage points per year. In addition, if INDC is fully implemented, these two annual growth figures will only reach 1.8% and 0.4 percentage points respectively.
Exceptional progress is being worked out in one crucial area: electricity generation. The cost of solar power has fallen by 80% since 2008. In some places, new supply contracts charge a low enough price of up to $ 0.06 per kilowatt-hour and make solar power completely competitive with coal and natural gas.
Between now and 2030, INDC shows that renewable energy capacity will grow four times faster than fossil fuel capacity, of which 70% of new investment in renewable energy will be made in developing and emerging countries. These investments need to be adapted to rapid advances in battery technology or other devices to meet the needs of electricity with an intermittent supply. But no doubt, in the middle of the century, we can build a cost-effective nil carbon system.
However, carbon nil energy, although very important, is not enough because electricity currently accounts for only 20% of total global energy consumption. Larger changes need to be made to the global energy system.
Decarbonization of such activities requires electrification or the use of hydrogen or biofuel. This is very possible but takes time.
However, the use of energy by heavy industry presents challenges that are often ignored. Metals, chemicals, cement, and plastics are vital frameworks in modern economies and involve processes that cannot be electrified. Decarbonization may require the use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, but the latest design building materials can reduce the demand for high carbon emissions inputs.
Given the challenges above, no doubt fossil fuels will continue to play a role in the transport sector and heavy industry for some time, although its role is diminished in terms of electricity generation. Even for electricity generation, INDC emerging economy countries imply new investments in gas and coal capacity. In total, the INDC shows that coal will still contribute to 35% of the world's electricity generation by 2030.
Considering the magnitude of the coal generating portion of coal, it is most likely not compatible with targets below 2 C. In addition, since coal and gas power plants can operate for 50 years or more, these investments increase the risk of locking emission levels incompatible with emissions targets or forcing major write-offasets.
Now the challenge is to seek an economically sensible path that enables emerging economies to meet rising national energy needs, while ensuring that climate targets are met globally. This is technically possible, but there is a need for action by different actors.
Governments must play a vital role, but fossil fuel-based energy companies that are now operating and newcomers deploying or developing new technologies also share the same role. NGOs can help identify the necessary policies and urge governments and industries to take responsibility. Individual consumers are also important because their behavior shapes the demand for energy.
Despite their different backgrounds, economic interests and perspectives, all these actors must engage in an intellectual debate that recognizes all the complexities in the challenges facing them. The joint goal is clear: building a low-carbon economy that can push global temperatures to no more than 2 C from pre-industrial temperatures, while realizing the welfare of 10 billion or more people.