Now, Indonesia’s rupiah inched closer to Rp 14.000 per US dollar as soon as trading began on Monday January 11th, 2016. The last time the rupiah surpassed the Rp 14.000 benchmark was in August, when China made a sudden devaluation of the yuan. The rupiah depreciation persisted until early October. The rupiah eventually gained strength and ended trading at Rp 13, 740 per US dollar, appreciating by 0,3% two days ago. This is just an opening information. Just in case, yuan and dollar have influence to rupiah.
In 2016, we will see currency war. Currency war is a popular term in context of the international political economy. For decades, US dollar, for instance, has been promoted as one of few valid international currencies and the majority of countries throughout the world have now accepted the US dollar currency as an official means for transaction and investment. By dominating the currency war, the US has enjoyed a variety of advantages, including prolonged economic stability. To some extent, by maintaining such a form of dominance, it’s possible for the value of the US dollar to increase or even multiply in other countries, in particular those that may be suffering under the weight of economic downturn like what happened in Indonesia in 1998.
Within the last decade, the currency war has transformed into a global trend and the rising of new major powers, like China, has challenged the hegemony of US. This includes the competition to acquire financial dominance among the international community. In recent years, China’s yuan has been introduced in many countries as an alternative payment for both debt and investment. By the way, you can read my last article (Pengaruh Ekonomi AS dan China Terhadap Fluktuasi Nilai Rupiah” in Kompasiana. I explain a lot about yuan and the potential of yuan to follow US Dollar.
In the near future, the currency war particularly, the competition between yuan and dollar is likely to become extremely harsh and unbearable. It seems that this beneficial strategy will be exercised by the Chinese government in the long run so as to take dominate over US dollar in International market. Who will win the war? At present, this remains unpredictable. There are still many factors that may impinge on the competition. In regard to primary concern for Indonesia is the survival of the rupiah.
Yuan vs Dollar? Indonesia has to prepare some counter measures. The rationable is to survive any potential damage that may arise. As a country that has good relationship with these two major powers, Indonesia has to develop a smart strategy!
3. e-conomy
Today, leaving home without smartphone is almost unthinkable. The smartphone has become indispensable in the lives of billion people around the world and business are fast tapping into enermous potential of the mobile revolution.
Over the past decade, mobile technologies have grown by leaps and bounds, transforming lives and entire industries. From travel to education to healthcare and finance, business are waking up to the potential of reaching millions of new customers by offering services that were once imaginable. Not even the industrial revolution had such rapid and broad impact on human society.
Indonesians too have been quick to adopt mobile technologies. More and more industries have begun to offer mobile-based services with the travel, banking finance and retail sectors leading the way. Even transportation companies are using mobile technologies to provide more efficient services and reduce cost.
For example, grab bike and gojek. I wanna tell you something about my expreience. Well, i know grab car for the first time when my friend introduce me this application last 2 moths ago. In November, when we wanna go home (not go to the “kosan”, because it’s weekend”), too tired to use taxi or angkot, we decided to take grabcar. We’re in BSD square South Tangerang. We wanna go to the rawabuntu station. So, when we used grabcar, i was so mezmerized when for the first time i knew that grab car using personal car, not-like-angkot-look. Grab car could raise our economic growth for sure, that was in my mind. When we arrived in rawabuntu station, the bill was Rp 16000 (fix cost). We knew that before we went. And you know if we used taxi? It will cost you around Rp 30000. How can grab car more effective and cheaper? Crazy huh? So, i mean this is a good idea in this era. I’m sure that so many investors out there intrested to invest the local digital start-ups like gojek, grabcar, tokopedia, etc. So, i’m sorry but fuck you Ignatius Jonan who wants to close this kind of business.
