The Global Maritime Fulcrum (GMF) is, by definition, international in nature. It envisions Indonesia becoming "a sovereign, advanced, independent, strong maritime nation that is able to provide positive contribution for peace and the security in the region as well as to the world in accordance with its national interests"[i]. While GMF is definitely international in nature, many perceive its implementation is predominantly inward-looking. This article will explore how the aspiration of the GMF can be achieved.
Criticism that GMF still lacks of foreign policy strategy is partially a communication issue. A recent report on the GMF by the Coordinating Ministry of Maritime Affairs (Kemenkomar) mentions international cooperation mainly for infrastructure and technology development[ii]. It misses to mention commendable conclusion and progress of border agreements with Singapore, Malaysia and Timor Leste. Indonesia also initiated the Hotline of Communication to Respond to Maritime Emergencies that was agreed in 2016 ASEAN-China Summit[iii].
Indonesia's Past, Present and Future as a Maritime Nation
The GMF vision is not something new and has historical roots. In 1963, President Soekarno issued an order for Indonesia to become an ocean nation. He argued that Indonesia's strength depend on its mastering the ocean. Pre-independence Indonesia's great kingdom such as: Sriwijaya, and Majapahit, depended on maritime control if not domination. They had maritime leverage vis--vis foreign kingdoms.
President Jokowi's GMF is the most pronounced maritime ambition after almost four decades. He underlined that oceans, seas, straits and bays are the future of our civilization[iv]. As an implementation roadmap of GMF, a Presidental Decree No. 16 on Indonesia's Ocean Policy (KKI) was issued in 2017. The Decree includes the National Document on KKI and Action Plan of the KKI.
The government's maritime priority corresponds the politics to distribute development dividend. Messaging of GMF achievement centers on practical results, such as: revenues, and infrastructure development. Undoubtedly, the messaging addresses mainly domestic political constituents. The message is clear that the gover. The Kemenkomar's report focused on infrastructure development, development of outer islands, tourism, and technological efforts.
The future direction of GMF will depend on both domestic and external situations. The incoming 2019 election will necessitate the government to deliver more concrete results and campaign promises. We can expect that status quo will be the likely choice. While Indonesia continues to conduct maritime diplomacy, it is anticipated that bulk of communication will be crafted for domestic constituents.
At the same time, the development in the region is too paramount for a business-as-usual approach. India seemingly realigns its foreign policy towards strengthened partnership with the US, Japan, and Australia. Japan launched its Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy. China is expected to intensify its Belt and Road Initiative with President Xi renewed term as the General Secretary of the Communist Party last month.
Maintain, Reverse, or Rebalance
GMF implementation needs to be considered against various domestic and international trends. First option is to maintain the current course of actions which will do well for domestic politics. However, it runs the risk that Indonesia is deemed irresponsive to the changing international environment. It will actually go against the international aspiration of GMF itself.
Second is to reverse the policy to be more outward-oriented. Injecting more foreign policy initiatives will help GMF realization. It can shift attention from meeting domestic political demands ahead of 2019 election. Since GMF still has a long way to go, another term for the current government is necessary.
