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China's Debt Crisis: A Threat to Chinese Dream?

12 November 2016   12:58 Diperbarui: 12 November 2016   13:06 34 0
In September 2016, Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released its quarterly review which stated that China’s credit-to-GDP ratio hit 30.1 in the first quarter of 2016. Last year, BIS quarterly review reported the figure for China at 25.4 level.[1] Credit-to-GDP ratio is a measure which looks at debt to GDP ratio and compares it with economic long term trend. According to BIS, when a country has a measure of about 10 on its credit-to-GDP ratio, it is at a high risk of banking crisis over the next three years and thus the current figure for China is three times bigger than the danger level. How could China reach this potentially damaging point? Moreover, what will happen next?

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