Analysis of Libyan Crisis

http://indonesiadefenseanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/03/analysis-of-libyan-crisis.html Analysis on Libya Crisis By Ir. Ade Muhammad, M.Def Introduction Successful demonstrations of pro democracy in Egypt and other Arab as well African neighbours are inspire Libyan people to stood against the dictatorship of Moammar Khadafi. The thawret 25 yanāyir, Revolution of 25 January of Egypt following the 18 December 2010 uprising in Tunisia, then sparks the same spirit of revolution of Democracy in Bahrain, Algeria, Djibouti, Jordan, Oman, Syria and Yemen. Also the minor pro democracy demonstration rose in Kuwait, Iran, Mauritania, Morocco, Sudan, Arab Saudi and Western Sahara. All of these start since 18 December 2010 in Tunisia. Demonstration in Libya began since 12 January 2011. Spread throughout the region in the country. The response of Khadafi’s regime has been quite hard with many violations of human rights including killing the solders that refused order to kill Libya’s civillian. These inappropriate responses of Government were trigger the mutiny of military members to joined the demonstration. This creates next level of demonstration to the armed conflict between Khadafi’s regime and Peoples of Libya (anti Khadafi). However Moammar Khadafi did give the protesters a change of dialogue buat the protesters rejected this idea and strongly urged him to step down from the power. International has been given Moammar Khadafy a several advice and warning. Several international warning to Moammar Khadafi were to step down as the leaders and commencing the democratization of Libya by holding an election. Moammar Khadafi called upon the mercenaries from  Democratic Republic of Congo, Mali, Sudan, Tunisia, Morocco, Kenya and possibly even Asia and Eastern Europe to replenished his lost of men that loyal to him, to surpressed the uprising. The cities are falling to the rebel’s hand Tobruk, Misurata and Benghazi. This made Moammar Khadafi fourious with anger and order the military to regain control of those cities. However the International began to made real intervention with United Nations Security Council Resolution 1970 and 1973, on the situation in Libya, is a measure that was adopted on 17 March 2011. The Security Council resolution was proposed by France, Lebanon, and the United Kingdom. Resolution number 1970 is to condemned the use of lethal force by the regime of Muammar Gaddafi against protesters participating in the Libyan uprising, and imposed a series of international sanctions in response. Then the resolution number 1973 is demanding "an immediate ceasefire" and authorizes the international community to establish a no-fly zone over Libya and to use all means necessary short of foreign occupation to protect civilians. First Moammar Khadafi stated that he will follow the Resolution that demands him to made a ceasefire with rebel. But the military forces of Moammar Khadafi still continue their attack, to the rebel as well civilian that oppose the regime. On 19 March 2011 about 19 France fighter planes over an area 100 km by 150 km (60 by 100 miles) over Benghazi to prevent any attacks on the rebel controlled city. Since then various operations has been launched, Opération Harmattan by France; Operation Ellamy by the UK; Operation Mobile for the Canadian participation and Operation Odyssey Dawn for the U.S. the UN also called this as operation Operation Unified Protector. the involving country under this coalition are Canada, Denmark, France, Greece, Italy, NATO (shared assets), Netherlands, Norway, Qatar,  Romania, Spain, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States. The International military intervention in Libya includes 3 categories, SEAD ( Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses), No Fly Zone and Maritime Blockade. Background There are four main question has to be answered in this analysis. 1.Does the Intervention is in Just Cause? 2.How to create Democratic Country in Libya? 3.What would be the implication on the global economy? To answer all of these question, we need academic tools to deconstruct the phenomenon and seeking our answers. The tools that required are: -SWOT is a strategic tools to determine the strategic condition of the phenomenon -PESTEL is a strategic tools to determine the strategic position -Systems’ thinking is a social analytical tool to explain the structure of the phenomenon. Analysis SWOT ANALYSIS SWOT on Moammar Khadafi Strength Weaknesses -Resources and Huge Fund (Libyan Investment Authority) -Military strenght -Loyalist -Strong will - Iron fist management -Iron Fist management, massacre -Low real Popularity -Corrupt and authoritarian, social injustice -No bottom up aspiration due no democracy -No Open Media -Poverty on the society -Past related to the State Sponsor Terrorism Opportunities Threats -Oil Interest Issues -Anti US Sentiment -International Direct Intervention -Growing strength of rebel -Political and Public officers back off SWOT on International Efforts Strength Weaknesses -International justification through Resolution no 1970 and 1973 -NATO military strength -Precision Attack -International Agenda of Democratization, Human Rights, Global War on Terrorism -Arab League support -Collateral Damage claim by Khadafi -Previous reputation of US (under Bush) -International criticsm Opportunities Threats -Momentum of Attack (in Coalition’s side) -International mandate -Khadafi’s injustice and violation on Human Rights -Capability to restrict and  seized Khadafi’s resources. -Cooperation with the Peoples and rebels of Libya -Direct retalitation from Libya Armed Forces to Coalition or its bases -Unified forces Libya with other Terrorist groups launched a direct or indirect attack campaign against military or civilian target around the world SWOT on People’s of Libya Strength Weaknesses -Protection from UN -Strong Spirit of Freedom from the long period of Oppression -Highly Public fed up and sentiment for Khadafi -Took over several cities in Libya -Solidarity from peoples around the region and globe -Unorganized -Limited resources -Only Ground Forces with limited military capability for self defense -Lack of vision and preparation to changing the system Opportunities Threats -Arab Democratization wave -Resolution 1970 and 1973 -International Agenda on Democratization, Human Rights and Global War on Terror -Arab League Support -Coordinated attack from Libyan forces and mercenaries -Unconventional warfare from mercenaries or Libyan special forces PESTEL  ANALYSIS PESTEL Moammar Khadafi ASPECT Points Information POLITICAL -No Legitimation (power through coup d’etat) -Tyrannical System  (no Democracy) -Anti Opposition and corrupt system -Active participation on the State Sponsored Terrorism -Loyalist in Armed Forces and additional mercenaries from African countries, as well Israel and Serbia. -Many officiel Governments and high ranking military resign due the rejection of order to kill the protesters -After embargo going soft and stop the activities ECONOMY -1,3 billion Euros frozen by International -Laaico 5 billion dollar -Libya Oil Holdings, Libya African Investment Portfolio and Libyan Foreign Investment Company (Lafico) -70 billion in Bonds in several African Countries -Still not clear how much total wealth of Moammar Ghadafi SOCIAL -the Qaddadfa tribe -Family – 2nd wife Safia Farkash, eight biological children, seven of them sons  -No tolerant to the critics and opposition from the Libyan public -Anti Western -Female Bodyguards - Muhammad al-Gadhafi,  Seif al-Islam Gadhafi, Saadi Gadhafi, Mutassim Gadhafi, Hannibal Gadhafi, Hanna (adopted and died during US attack) -Amazonian Guard TECHNOLOGY -Airforce, Army and Navy with mostly Russian technology also France and Italian technology in a small portion -Mercenaries fully equiped most of them Russian Technology ENVIRONMENT -Arab Saudi, Bahrain and others still holding power in the middle of massive demonstration in Arab and African neighbourhood LEGAL -Legalistif formal of Libyan Law -Contradiction with UN Resolution no 1970 and 1973 -Under control of Ghadafi PESTEL International Efforts ASPECT Points Information POLITICAL -Global agenda of Democratization, Human Rights protection and Global War on Terror -International Mandate to UN forces to enforcing UN Resolution 1973 ECONOMY -Economical Impact of unrest -Europe is 79% importer of Libyan oil (79% of 1,5 million barrel/day) -Economical burden on the potential refugee from Libya -Wealthy Europe and Arab Countries bac up with US ready to take further action -Libya 12th largest crude oil producers of the world, could creates turmoil the global market if production distrubted oil price would be high and creates global inflation SOCIAL -Potential Libyan refugee waves to Europe -Global solidarity to Human Rights violation by Moammar Ghadafi’s regime -Mostly Democratic and free society TECHNOLOGY -Superior Western Technology ENVIRONMENT -Global agenda -Storm of Democratization process in Middle East and Africa LEGAL -UN Resolution no 1970 -UN Resolution no 1973 PESTEL Peoples of Libya ASPECT Points Information POLITICAL -Low Public participation to Politics -High aware and anger to Corruption ECONOMY -GDP (PPP) $96.138 billion 2010 estimate -GDP (PPP) percapita $14,88 -GDP (Nominal) $76.557 billion 2010 estimate -GDP (Nominal) $11,852 -Emerging Economy in Africa but high number of unemployment -68th world -56th world -64th world -45th world SOCIAL -82% of the population can read and write -About 140 tribes and clans -Libyan country as Assylum seekers heaven aprox 16,000 in 2007 -Using social network like Facebook and Twitter access for public to communicate and coordinate TECHNOLOGY -Facebook and Twitter access for public to communicate and coordinate -Light and small Weapon and Rocket Launcher -Support by superior air support of UN Forces -Rebel captured small Heavy weapon but without supply ENVIRONMENT -Storm of Democratization process in Middle East and Africa LEGAL -Protected by : UN Resolution no 1970  and -UN Resolution no 1973 -International Humanitarian Law Systems’ Thinking  ANALYSIS LIBYAN CRISIS Begin with : Ghadafi having Corrupt System then undermining the welfare of people in Libya. Moammar Ghadafi à adding Corrupt System à decreasing the welfare of Libyan People. Then Arab – African Uprising à aspire Libyan People à Libyan People Protesters àMoammar Ghadafi response with à build up Military Capacity (including using Human Shield as protectors of the facility) à launched Supressed Operation à back to mitigate Libyan People Protesters, by genocide method. In the Operation many of Army pro People doesnt like the order to killing their family and fellow nation. Military capacity à Army pro People flee their service à joined with Libyan People Protesters à Fight back Supressed Operation. The massacres of Libyan People Protesters also trigger the Global Sympathy. Libyan People Protesters à adding to Global Sympathy à UN Security Council consideration several aspects à UN issued Resolutions à To stop Moammar Ghadafi to harm furthermore Civilian Protesters à however Ghadafi response otherwise with trick move. UN response with build up military forces in the UN Coalition à strike to minimize the military Capacity of Libya à The air strike might causing Collateral Damage (because Human Shield tactics as protectors of the facility)à this would be adding advantage of Moammar Ghadafi à as justification to fight back UN Resolution. The Collateral Damage à also minimizing the anger and hatred of People of Libya to Ghadafi The Collateral Damage à also playing as sympathy chip by Moammar Ghadafi à to win Islamic Sympathy à then can move Islamic World à to persuade or pressure UN Security Council to drop the Resolution. The reasoning of UN are: 1.Libyan People Protesters that had been massacre by regime à gain Global Sympathy à if this continue then will be accumulate Refugee (Potential Refugee Consideration) à if this happens will be causing Potential Social and Financial Problem (like Bosnia Case àcausing Europe social and financial problem for Bosnian Refugee) 2.The position of Moammar Ghadafi in this stage à Creates Problem in Domestic Security àcausing problem to Domestic Stability à Decreasing Production of Oil à adding Potential Social and Financial Problem for Global Community. Conclusion The conclusion will be the answer of the questions of this analysis. 1.Does the Intervention is in Just Cause? Just Cause under the mandate of UN Resolution 1973. However have to very careful the tactics of human shield. It means with the best precision attack could produce significant amount of civilian casualties due the placement of civilians in the target area. The implication would be severe for diplomatic fight back from Libyan Regime. 2.How to create Democratic Country in Libya? In order to create Democratic Libya, there are two ways: First way Moammar Ghadafi has to be overcome quickly as possible. With international cooperation to held International Transition Body to prepare 3 things, the Election, the Constitution and Restore Order by International Peacekeeping Operation. Moammar Ghadafi has to be detain waiting for further Trial later by Libyan new Government. Second way Moammar Ghadafi could deal with his own people with transitional government to prepare the Election and the new Constitution. As the price of deal, Moammar Ghadafi would not be touch. He even could be the Head of State as symbol. Meanwhile the Head of Government should be from the election process. 3.What would be the implication on the global economy? If this crisis happening in the longer duration of time, the implication of global economy from Libyan crisis would come from 2 sectors. First from the potential of Refugee that will flood the Arab and African neighbour and also Europe as main destination. The lesson from Bosnia told the world about refugee could triggering social and financial problem to the host countries. Second from the decreasing of production of Libyan oil. This will be creating inflation to global economy. Recommendation The recommendation would be: 1.Strategy Diplomatic: Carrot or Fire. It means International diplomats in UN have to play games with Moammar Ghadafi, to convince him to take Democratization with second Way (in the answer number 2). This option is without embarrassment and less bloodshed. 2.If Fire comes to the option. Make it Quick and Decisive winning. It means including liquidating Moammar Ghadafi. This is using Head of Snakes philosophy.The role of inteligence would be vital to tracking Moammar Ghadafi’s place, excluding attacking in open public appreance. 3.More Arab Country inside Coalition the better. This conclude this analysis and thank you for your attention. Ir. 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