On that evening in Butler, Pennsylvania, the air hung heavy, thick with the weight of unsaid words. The crimson sky stretched wide, a silent witness to the tension simmering above thousands of expectant faces, all waiting with bated breath for former President Donald Trump's speech. The chants of "Make America Great Again!" reverberated through the air, amplifying the fervor and raw emotion of the event. Amidst the sea of eager faces, hope and ambition merged into one, their voices blending into a thunderous roar. Yet, on the fringes of this jubilant crowd, a shadowy figure stood poised, ready to alter the course of history.
With steely resolve and an icy glare, Thomas Matthew Crooks lifted his AR-15 rifle. In a heartbeat, the vibrant scene, once brimming with color and life, morphed into a nightmarish vision of darkness. The deafening blast shattered the jubilant cheers, transforming them into screams, and with that, a new, ominous chapter of the story unfolded.
"Fight, fight, fight!" – Donald Trump
He shouted three times, pumping his fist in the air.
This shocking event wove a dramatic thread through the narrative of the U.S. presidential election, as if straight out of an action movie. The ripple effects of this incident didn't just shift the election's trajectory; they spilled over into other realms. One such domain was the stock market, ever sensitive to seismic events.
The stock market, with its volatile and unpredictable nature, reacted sharply to every twist and turn. Investors, from the smallest to the largest, monitored each move and word from the candidates with intense scrutiny, especially in the wake of the assassination attempt on Donald Trump, the leading presidential candidate for the upcoming term.
In a similar vein, this situation brings to mind the House of Cards series, where political intrigue and strategic maneuvering dominate. Just as Frank Underwood in the series adeptly manipulated situations to strengthen his power and sideline his adversaries, this momentum could serve as a crucial strategic tool. It offers a chance to enhance one’s public image, boost electoral appeal, and outmaneuver rivals with the precision and foresight of a chess game, shaping the political landscape with each calculated move.
Shoot the shot
The attempted assassination of Donald Trump sent shockwaves through the US stock market. It is undeniable that after the assassination attempt, uncertainty about market risks in the United States also played a role. One way to measure the level of "fear" in the market is through the Volatility Index (VIX), which shows market expectations about future stock price fluctuations. An increase in the VIX value reflects high investor uncertainty and concern, which illustrates the impact of major events on financial market stability.
After the assassination attempt, it rose about 4% to 12.96 on Monday morning ahead of the US stock market opening week, at 8.45 am (Market Watch, 2024). Â The 4% rise in VIX reflects that the market sees this event as something that has the potential to add to political and economic uncertainty. In other words, the rise in VIX is a signal that market risk has increased in response to these events. This incident, it is predicted, will make investors likely to turn to safe-haven assets such as the US dollar, Swiss franc, gold, and Bitcoin, which are seen as an escape from political uncertainty.
However, the real impact did not unfold as expected. The shockwave from the assassination attempt intensified, but the initial reaction was overwhelmingly positive. Observers were caught off guard by an unexpected reversal: the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 211 points, or 0.5%, closing at a record high. This spike followed the recent upward trend in inflation data, which had already fostered a sense of optimism. Similarly, the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.4% (CNN, 2024). This wave of momentum suggests biased investor behavior, such as overconfidence and the endowment effect, where they perceive the assassination attempt as a "breath of fresh air" due to their expectations of Donald Trump’s victory.
