Decision Making in 700 Milliseconds: Penalty Kicks Based on Behavioral Economics

Lewandoski lined up for the penalty, a chance to put Poland in front, and a beautiful save from Guillermo Ochoa! Mexico's Ochoa was hailed as a World Cup legend after his penalty save against Poland. 

This year's biggest international football tournament has officially commenced and a lot of anomalies have kept football fans on edge. Many were beyond entertained these past few days. Seeing Ochoa's beautiful penalty save, many were curious on how he jumped to his left side before Lewandoski even kicked the ball. He correctly jumped to the kicker's shot direction and stopped Poland from winning their World Cup opener.

In this moment of global euphoria for football fans, one of the cruelest facets of this game -- the penalty kick -- is put into the spotlight. A giant leap of hope, one kick, and in a blink of an eye the fate of a nation's success in the biggest stage of football is decided. 

The 2020 Euros proved the significance of penalty shootouts when England failed to win their first international trophy since 1966 due to a misstep in decision making, which led them to lose against Italy in a penalty shootout. 

Although it is thrilling to watch, how do keepers decide when to go right or left? How do kickers decide where to shoot? What is the best strategy for a penalty kick? It turns out that economics -- particularly behavioral economics and game theory -- have their own way of explaining this phenomenon.

Penalty: A Battle of Strategy or Luck? Game Theory Tells Us

A penalty kick is a one-on-one match between the kicker and the keeper, one of which must win or lose - no in betweens. Therefore, a penalty shootout is a "zero-sum game" in which one of them wins, the other one loses (Cornell University, 2016). The gameplay is rather simple: the kicker takes one shot at goal while it is only defended by the opposing team's goalkeeper.

According to Michael Clegg, a Premier League sports performance coach, a ball kicked in a penalty travels at an average speed of about 70 mph. This gives the goalkeeper about 700 milliseconds to see the direction the ball is going, decide which direction to jump, and move his body and save the shot. 

However, all these actions take the keeper almost a second to do,  requiring them to jump before the shot is taken. During the few minutes before the shot is kicked, the economic concept of game theory can help explain what goes through these players' minds.

Economics is a study of how people make choices under different conditions. Choices are made in all aspects of human life, making economics relevant in almost any situation -- including the world of football. 

This study of choice is intensified in game theory, the science of strategy and interacting choices, making it indispensable in showcasing the decision-making process regarding a penalty kick.