International Relation
Will Donald Trump be a president with nice attitude and good relation with the international world? The answer is strongly no. This viewpoint is based on Donald Trump’s campaigns, in most of which he stated disapproval towards international trade, and the fact that not only once did he say offensive statement about other countries. Aside of calling NAFTA as a disaster, Donald Trump also referred to China as a “currency manipulator” and said that China, Mexico, and other countries are “killing us (United States of America)” in terms of trade agreement. As a solution to that “trade agreement problems”, Donald Trump is willing to put high tariffs on product manufactured abroad, which produced by both U.S. and foreign company.
This so called solution, however, would cause a trade war between U.S. and countries that would be damaged by Donald Trump’s policy. If those countries retaliate by also putting high tariffs, U.S. exports will be more expensive and it will affect export-supporting industries, leading to about 7 million fewer jobs in the U.S.[12] Even if those countries don’t retaliate, U.S. economy would still be harmed since imported goods would be more expensive and therefore reduce the purchasing power of the people of U.S. In addition, diplomats of “powerful” countries including Japan, Germany, and United Kingdom expressed their concern about the possibility of Trump being the president. According to them, The United States in general, including its economic sector, will be worse under the leadership of Trump if he is elected[13].
What To Do, Then
Although the possibility of Donald Trump to defeat his Democratic contender is still uncertain, the U.S. and all countries that will possibly be affected by this forecast should be aware of the risks. For U.S., if Donald Trump is elected as the president, the government should reconsider the policies Donald Trump had proposed in his campaign. For the illegal immigration problem, instead of strengthening borders and deporting “illegal aliens”, the government should consider implementing better job program and improving visa work program so that it will reduce number of non-U.S. workers living illegally, without reducing the number of workers in general.
For the tax reform problem, the government should consider reducing the tax rates and increasing the amount of economy subject to taxation simultaneously, and also reforming a more suitable tax rates for all levels of U.S. citizen’s economy. For international relation, instead of putting high tariffs (in example 45% for China and 35% for Mexico), the government should consider imposing Scaled Tariffs, which rate is proportional to the size of each country’s trade surplus with the U.S.. Therefore, the possibility of trade war could be avoided. As for countries that will be affected by this forecast, each should slowly reduce its dependency on international trade sectors by progressively increasing taxes on import goods, maintaining sustainable development which will lead to maximized national economic strength, and intensifying domestic production along with developing the quality of its human resources.
By: Sasha Namira |Ilmu Ekonomi 2015 |Staf Kajian KANOPI 2016
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References:
[1] http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results
[2] http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35828747
