It is also important to note that Taiwan was snatched up from China by world great-powers of 19th and 20th century. It was taken while China was weak and not considered as a great power – a position it used to enjoy all along its more than two-millennia-long history. Bringing the island back under Beijing’s control willrepresents an end to century of humiliation and symbolically bringing China back into world’s league of great-powers.
Geostrategic considerations will also prevent China from making the kind of concessions the Soviet did. It must be remembered that Taiwan is not Finland. It will be more appropriate to make comparison between Germany during the Cold War with Taiwan today since both are geographically significant – while Finland, with all due respect, was not. In other words, Taiwan is just too significant for China’s military operations to be formally relinquished – just as how significant Germany was during the Cold War for both sides.
For China, controlling Taiwan will further strengthen its A2/AD strategy and posture in the Western Pacific. Possessing Taiwan will give an extra-depth (300km) for China’s defense against U.S.’s moves into China seas. Besides, Taiwan mountainous eastern coastline can surely be engineered to hide missile launchers, aircrafts, and other platforms and logistics to make life hard for American sailors and airmen. Considering China’s expertise in tunneling, it is not a hard feat to make another underground great wall throughout eastern Taiwan.
Furthermore, Taiwan central geographical position means it can be utilized to control the naval access in-and-out of East and South China seas toward the Pacific Ocean and vice versa. By controlling Taiwan, it will be easier for China to monitor the gates of – and closing it down if necessary – China seas. As for China’s sizeable submarine fleet, control of the island means much easier access or breakthrough into the Pacific Ocean.
FOR all the reasons stated, it just does not make any sense for China to make considerable concessions at this point. Currently, China’s military and economic power grows faster than the U.S. For sure, the rise of China represents the fastest rise of any great-power in modern history. In the foreseeable future, it is likely that China will continue to grow faster than the U.S. and push even closer the U.S.-China military and economic gaps.
Some reports have even asserted that China is now strong enough to take on U.S. forces and force it to a draw (at the very least) if war erupts in East Asia these days. If the powerless China of our grandparent’s days never made concessions on Taiwan issue, why on earth the superpower China of our days will make a big one now?
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Written by: Zidny Ilman. Zidny Ilman is the coordinator of Indonesia Berbicara's Pusat Kajian (Research Center). This article was first published in The National Interest.
