Tuesday night (01/10), we were surprised by Iran's attack that was able to penetrate Israel's Iron Dome defence system. In this attack, Iran presented Israel with around 200 al-Fattah hypersonic missiles to several areas in Tel Aviv. The attack, which the Iranian President said was Iran's "firm response", decorated Israel's sky like a stunning fireworks party that night.
In response to the attack, Netanyahu said that Iran would receive retaliatory consequences from Israel shortly. However, until now, Israel has not responded at all. Observers believe that this is because the US, which is Israel's biggest supporter, has not concretely approved Israel's counterattack. Although Biden has promised his full support for Israel, he has not outlined what concrete steps he will take.
In the context of global geopolitics, we understand that the US will be cautious in making decisions. Biden certainly understands that no matter how small the US decision on the Iran-Israel war is, it can undoubtedly lead to an escalation of the conflict, which in the end, and in a short time, will hit back at the stability of the US economy, especially now that the US is preparing to hold a presidential election in early November. Rising prices and adverse sentiment due to escalation could stick to the Biden administration at the end of his term, a condition Biden wants to avoid, especially during the presidential election.
However, suppose the situation worsens, especially causing the Middle East to plunge into a regional war. In that case, Indonesia may also receive negative impacts both directly and indirectly, including the issue of evacuating Indonesian citizens (WNI) in the affected areas, the safety of Indonesian troops in the Lebanon-Israel border, the increase in domestic prices due to the soaring world oil prices and Indonesia's relationship with the US. Although the latter is not considered to have a significant impact, the position of the Indonesian Government is an essential factor that could impact the dynamics of Indonesia-US relations.
Although observers suspect that the US and its allies will not interfere excessively in the war, it is also possible that the US and its allies will also take a large part in helping Israel militarily based on the legitimacy of resistance against Iran and Hamas.
Then what would the impact be if this escalation continues to increase? Protecting Indonesian citizens is the most crucial issue if regional war cannot be avoided. We have heard a statement from the Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarding the full readiness of the Indonesian Representative to carry out the evacuation process for Indonesian citizens in areas suspected of being affected by conflict.
This issue is crucial because apart from one of the constitutional mandates to protect Indonesian citizens, repatriation from countries affected by conflict is not easy. After all, we understand that apart from finding a safe route, determining a temporary evacuation site and fulfilling logistical needs amidst security uncertainty is a challenge in itself for our Representative personnel in areas that have been affected, such as Lebanon, or areas that have the potential to be affected such as Syria, Jordan and Iran of course.
The large number of Indonesian citizens in these countries also adds to the complexity of the evacuation process. According to data from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, around 800,000 Indonesian citizens are registered in the Middle East, most of them living in Saudi Arabia. There are around 400 Indonesian citizens in Iran, most of them students living in the city of Qom.
This complexity, for instance, in the process of repatriating Indonesian citizens from Beirut, Mr Audi, one of the Indonesian students in Beirut who participated in the evacuation, had to travel by land from Beirut to Damascus and then to Amman to wait for a flight from the Jordanian capital. This evacuation process must also be carried out carefully and in a very short time. Added to this is the uncertainty of land route security and the difficulty of finding adequate transportation, accommodation and health facilities during evacuation. After the evacuation process, the next challenge is to provide certainty for Indonesian citizens who have been successfully repatriated; for example, for their status as students studying in a conflict country, the Government must guarantee the continuation of their studies after returning home.
In addition to the evacuation of Indonesian citizens, it should also be noted that Indonesia has the most significant number of troops in the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). The UN Peacekeeping Force in Lebanon operates in the Blue Line area of the Lebanon-Israel border. The Indonesian soldiers (TNI) who are part of the UNIFIL mission are estimated to be around 1,200 personnel. With the increasing Israeli attacks from around the UNIFIL's areas of responsibility, the negative impacts may also threaten the safety of Indonesian soldiers. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia, Retno Marsudi, recently expressed this concern.
