Analyzing Geopolitical Impact: Trump's Leadership and the Threat to Global Stability
based on Trevor Treharne's article, November 7, 2024
Indra Wardhana SE MSc-HSEaud
Donald Trump's return to the White House has sparked widespread speculation regarding its implications for global stability, geopolitical dynamics, and the world economy. With a track record of controversial policies and unorthodox leadership during his first term, his reelection has become a focal point, especially for global risk managers bracing for the potential upheavals to come.
A Wild Card for Business
As Control Risks stated, U.S. elections often represent the most significant geopolitical event, with ripple effects felt worldwide. Trump's victory, however, introduces a new layer of uncertainty. His "America First" approach previously resulted in protectionism, trade wars, and tariff increases, which not only disrupted global supply chains but also fueled inflation that eroded consumer purchasing power.
Many believe that Trump's second term could be bolder than his first, given that it will be his final chance to leave a legacy in U.S. politics. His unilateral policies and sudden regulatory changes not only stymied international trade but also restricted global innovation. For instance, Trump's proposed flat 10% tariff on U.S. imports is expected to burden businesses ranging from small enterprises to multinational corporations.
Global Relations and Diplomatic Tensions
Trump's confrontational style of diplomacy is likely to exacerbate existing geopolitical tensions. His preference for relationships with authoritarian leaders like Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin, while undermining traditional alliances such as NATO, has highlighted the instability in U.S. foreign policy strategies. This has raised concerns about America's potential isolation on the international stage.
The case of South Korea serves as a concrete example. Trump bluntly referred to this key U.S. ally as a "money machine," implying that diplomatic relations are merely transactional. Such an approach could damage alliances built over decades, leaving U.S. allies uncertain and creating opportunities for countries like China and Russia to expand their influence.
Supply Chain Disruptions and Economic Stability