The rise of the global economy is predicted to decelerate in 2022 before picking up again in 2023. The decline in global economic activity is affecting several nations, including Indonesia.
In November 2022, Indonesia began to suffer the effects of the global economic slowdown, which significantly impacted the export-import sector of the Indonesian economy. The global economic downturn affected the Indonesian economy, especially the export-import sector. Even if Indonesia had a trade surplus of $5,600,000, there is no possibility that this movement will positively on the rupiah. (Faisal, 2022).
Moreover, we cannot ignore the fact that the value of Indonesia's exports has been dropping in recent months. The value of Indonesia's exports alone in November 2022 was US$24.12 billion, a 2.46 percent decrease from October 2022. The value of Indonesia's imports, which reached $18.96 billion in November 2022, declined by 0.91 percent compared to the value of Indonesia's exports in the same month. (BPS, 2022)
Didin S. Damanhuri, a senior economist at INDEF, attributed the recent decline in global economic activity, which has resulted in a decline in exports, to one of four possible causes. The Federal Reserve of the United States continues to boost interest rates to between 3.75 and 4 percent throughout the month of November. This action induced inflation in several countries, including Indonesia. The second concern is one that has arisen in China, namely the fact that they are utilizing an incomplete version of Covid. This circumstance has resulted in a decline in export-import demand, and as a result, it is projected that China's economic growth would continue to be uneven. China is Indonesia's primary export market. Thirdly, there is the issue of supply disruptions resulting from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This is an issue because both of these countries are significant food exporters to the rest of the world. The prevalence of natural disasters as a direct effect of climate change is the fourth cause of food and energy supply disruptions worldwide.
References
BPS. (2022). Berita Resmi Statistik. Perkembangan Ekspor dan Perkembangan Ekspor , 1.
Damanhuri, D. S. (2022, Desember). Ekspor-Impor RI November 2022 Turun Secara Bulanan, Apa Sebabnya? Retrieved from Youtube CNBN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLPMCLe8EAk
Faisal, F. (2022, December 16). Rupiah Tetap Keok Meski Neraca Dagang Surplus 31 Bulan! Retrieved from CNBC Indonesia: https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/market/20221216165455-19-397631/rupiah-tetap-keok-meski-neraca-dagang-surplus-31-bulan